← Caerphilly (all cycles) · 5 May 2022 cohort

Caerphilly 2022

Local elections held 5 May 2022.

31 ward races

69 seats

44 elected below the proportional quota

63.8% of seats below quota

How to read this page

Each race below shows the share of valid ballots the marginal elected candidate actually won, and compares it to the proportional quota: the share that would be needed to be guaranteed that seat under any proportional voting method (1 seats + 1). For a 1-seat ward the quota is 50%; for 2 seats, 33.3%; for 3 seats, 25%.

Where the actual winning share fell below the quota, we show the gap as points under par — the editorial indictment. Above-par results are just majority mandates and pass without comment. The voting method is the subject of every observation here. Named candidates appear as the public election record requires; the cause being audited is the voting method, not the individuals. See the methodology page for derivations.

If votes were counted by party

Across the 31 wards in this cycle, parties received the vote totals below. The proportional column shows what each party would have won if the 69 seats had been allocated to those vote totals in proportion (how, with caveats). The Δ column is the actual seat count minus the proportional seat count — positive numbers are parties First-Past-the-Post over-represented in this council, negative are parties it under-represented.

Party	Votes	Vote %	Seats won	% of seats	Proportional seats	Proportional %	Δ
Labour Party	41,350	43.4%	44	63.8%	31	44.9%	+13
PC	34,144	35.9%	18	26.1%	25	36.2%	-7
Independent	14,656	15.4%	6	8.7%	11	15.9%	-5
Conservative and Unionist Party	3,631	3.8%	1	1.4%	2	2.9%	-1
Liberal Democrats	904	0.9%	0	0.0%	0	0.0%	0
Green Party	214	0.2%	0	0.0%	0	0.0%	0
Social Democratic Party	210	0.2%	0	0.0%	0	0.0%	0
Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition	111	0.1%	0	0.0%	0	0.0%	0
Total	95,220	100.0%	69	100.0%	69	100.0%	0

Vote share vs seats won

The top bar is each party's share of votes cast in this council. Below, one square per seat, coloured by the party that won it — first the actual First-Past-the-Post result, then what a proportional method would have produced from the same vote totals. Divergence between the bar and the actual grid is the indictment of the method.

Vote share

Actual seats

Proportional seats

Wards in this council

Sorted with the largest gap below the quota first. Click any ward to jump to its full result.

Nelson · 2 seats · won at 20.3% · +13.1 pts below quota
Pontllanfraith · 3 seats · won at 15.6% · +9.4 pts below quota
Aberbargoed & Bargoed · 3 seats · won at 15.6% · +9.4 pts below quota
Crumlin · 2 seats · won at 24.0% · +9.3 pts below quota
Morgan Jones · 3 seats · won at 15.9% · +9.1 pts below quota
St. Cattwg · 3 seats · won at 17.0% · +8.0 pts below quota
Newbridge · 3 seats · won at 17.6% · +7.4 pts below quota
Van · 2 seats · won at 26.1% · +7.2 pts below quota
Hengoed · 2 seats · won at 26.4% · +6.9 pts below quota
Cefn Forest & Pengam · 3 seats · won at 18.6% · +6.4 pts below quota
Abercarn · 2 seats · won at 28.5% · +4.8 pts below quota
Risca West · 2 seats · won at 28.6% · +4.7 pts below quota
Risca East · 3 seats · won at 20.5% · +4.5 pts below quota
Machen & Rudry · 2 seats · won at 28.8% · +4.5 pts below quota
Bedwas & Trethomas · 3 seats · won at 21.1% · +3.9 pts below quota
Llanbradach · 2 seats · won at 29.5% · +3.8 pts below quota
Penyrheol · 4 seats · won at 17.3% · +2.7 pts below quota
Penmaen · 2 seats · won at 30.8% · +2.6 pts below quota
St. Martins · 3 seats · won at 22.7% · +2.3 pts below quota
Blackwood · 3 seats · won at 25.4% · above quota
Aber Valley · 3 seats · won at 25.6% · above quota
Moriah & Pontlottyn · 2 seats · won at 34.7% · above quota
Cross Keys · 1 seat · won at 51.5% · above quota
New Tredegar · 2 seats · won at 35.4% · above quota
Ystrad Mynach · 2 seats · won at 36.2% · above quota
Ynysddu · 2 seats · won at 42.5% · above quota
Maesycwmmer · 1 seat · won at 59.9% · above quota
Argoed · 1 seat · won at 61.3% · above quota
Gilfach · 1 seat · won at 72.7% · above quota
Twyn Carno · 1 seat · won at 80.4% · above quota
Darran Valley · 1 seat · won at 89.5% · above quota

Race results

Nelson · 2-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 20.3% Proportional quota 33.3% Difference +13.1 pts below quota Valid ballots 2,557

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Morgan S.	Labour Party	627	24.5%	Elected
2	Miles N.	Conservative and Unionist Party	518	20.3%	Elected
3	Powell R.	Independent	383	15.0%
4	Jenkins B.	Independent	365	14.3%
5	Dafydd E.	PC	296	11.6%
6	John A.	PC	286	11.2%
7	Miles B.	Labour Party	82	3.2%

Electorate 3,636 · Ballots cast 2,557 · EC ward code W05001665 · Back to ward index

Pontllanfraith · 3-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 15.6% Proportional quota 25.0% Difference +9.4 pts below quota Valid ballots 5,231

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Adams M.	Labour Party	1,045	20.0%	Elected
2	Cook P.	Labour Party	926	17.7%	Elected
3	Gordon C.	Labour Party	815	15.6%	Elected
4	Richards L.	Independent	782	14.9%
5	Williams R.	Independent	565	10.8%
6	Wells J.	Independent	515	9.8%
7	Clark C.	Conservative and Unionist Party	373	7.1%
8	Pearce J.	Social Democratic Party	210	4.0%

Electorate 6,416 · Ballots cast 5,231 · EC ward code W05001670 · Back to ward index

Aberbargoed & Bargoed · 3-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 15.6% Proportional quota 25.0% Difference +9.4 pts below quota Valid ballots 5,143

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Davies T.	Labour Party	904	17.6%	Elected
2	Price D.	Labour Party	810	15.7%	Elected
3	Ingram-Jones D.	Labour Party	803	15.6%	Elected
4	Bissex-Foster C.	PC	743	14.4%
5	Edwards P.	PC	729	14.2%
6	Houston K.	PC	676	13.1%
7	Puddefoot R.	Independent	259	5.0%
8	Gingell B.	Independent	219	4.3%

Electorate 7,197 · Ballots cast 5,143 · EC ward code W05001649 · Back to ward index

Crumlin · 2-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 24.0% Proportional quota 33.3% Difference +9.3 pts below quota Valid ballots 2,717

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Thomas C.	Labour Party	846	31.1%	Elected
2	Woodland K.	Labour Party	652	24.0%	Elected
3	Davies M.	PC	562	20.7%
4	Morgan C.	PC	470	17.3%
5	Lloyd M.	Liberal Democrats	104	3.8%
6	Lloyd S.	Liberal Democrats	83	3.1%

Electorate 4,434 · Ballots cast 2,717 · EC ward code W05001656 · Back to ward index

Morgan Jones · 3-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 15.9% Proportional quota 25.0% Difference +9.1 pts below quota Valid ballots 5,772

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Pritchard J.	Labour Party	1,092	18.9%	Elected
2	Cook S.	Labour Party	1,002	17.4%	Elected
3	Broughton-Pettit A.	Labour Party	916	15.9%	Elected
4	Prew M.	PC	816	14.1%
5	Downes M.	PC	636	11.0%
6	Robotham M.	PC	625	10.8%
7	Child J.	Conservative and Unionist Party	242	4.2%
8	Child J.	Conservative and Unionist Party	229	4.0%
9	Celnik A.	Green Party	214	3.7%

Electorate 5,811 · Ballots cast 5,772 · EC ward code W05001663 · Back to ward index

St. Cattwg · 3-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 17.0% Proportional quota 25.0% Difference +8.0 pts below quota Valid ballots 4,951

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Pritchard H.	PC	902	18.2%	Elected
2	Gair A.	Labour Party	848	17.1%	Elected
3	Pritchard J.	PC	843	17.0%	Elected
4	Bezzina C.	Labour Party	822	16.6%
5	Toner J.	Labour Party	784	15.8%
6	Moss C.	PC	752	15.2%

Electorate 5,633 · Ballots cast 4,951 · EC ward code W05001673 · Back to ward index

Newbridge · 3-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 17.6% Proportional quota 25.0% Difference +7.4 pts below quota Valid ballots 4,152

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Hussey A.	Labour Party	745	17.9%	Elected
2	Johnston G.	Labour Party	733	17.7%	Elected
3	Jeremiah L.	Labour Party	729	17.6%	Elected
4	Ackerman L.	PC	687	16.5%
5	Mills R.	PC	468	11.3%
6	Morrisey W.	PC	415	10.0%
7	Edwards C.	Conservative and Unionist Party	193	4.6%
8	Butcher K.	Conservative and Unionist Party	182	4.4%

Electorate 4,881 · Ballots cast 4,152 · EC ward code W05001667 · Back to ward index

Van · 2-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 26.1% Proportional quota 33.3% Difference +7.2 pts below quota Valid ballots 1,877

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Forehead C.	Labour Party	536	28.6%	Elected
2	Forehead E.	Labour Party	490	26.1%	Elected
3	Hughes L.	PC	443	23.6%
4	Grenfell J.	PC	408	21.7%

Electorate 3,390 · Ballots cast 1,877 · EC ward code W05001676 · Back to ward index

Hengoed · 2-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 26.4% Proportional quota 33.3% Difference +6.9 pts below quota Valid ballots 2,180

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Cushing D.	PC	608	27.9%	Elected
2	Parry T.	PC	576	26.4%	Elected
3	Rowlands T.	Labour Party	502	23.0%
4	Stone R.	Labour Party	494	22.7%

Electorate 4,155 · Ballots cast 2,180 · EC ward code W05001659 · Back to ward index

Cefn Forest & Pengam · 3-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 18.6% Proportional quota 25.0% Difference +6.4 pts below quota Valid ballots 4,598

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Williams S.	Labour Party	929	20.2%	Elected
2	Heron T.	Labour Party	886	19.3%	Elected
3	Chacon-Dawson M.	Labour Party	856	18.6%	Elected
4	Phillips L.	Independent	582	12.7%
5	James G.	Independent	554	12.0%
6	Edwards G.	Independent	553	12.0%
7	Parker J.	Conservative and Unionist Party	238	5.2%

Electorate 5,678 · Ballots cast 4,598 · EC ward code W05001654 · Back to ward index

Abercarn · 2-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 28.5% Proportional quota 33.3% Difference +4.8 pts below quota Valid ballots 2,288

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Whitcombe A.	Labour Party	743	32.5%	Elected
2	Preece D.	Labour Party	653	28.5%	Elected
3	Jones J.	PC	484	21.2%
4	Jones I.	PC	408	17.8%

Electorate 4,121 · Ballots cast 2,288 · EC ward code W05001650 · Back to ward index

Risca West · 2-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 28.6% Proportional quota 33.3% Difference +4.7 pts below quota Valid ballots 2,197

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Owen B.	Independent	983	44.7%	Elected
2	Wright C.	Labour Party	629	28.6%	Elected
3	Derraven R.	Independent	585	26.6%

Electorate 4,014 · Ballots cast 2,197 · EC ward code W05001672 · Back to ward index

Risca East · 3-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 20.5% Proportional quota 25.0% Difference +4.5 pts below quota Valid ballots 3,061

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	George N.	Labour Party	698	22.8%	Elected
2	Leonard A.	Labour Party	631	20.6%	Elected
3	Leonard P.	Labour Party	626	20.5%	Elected
4	Ham B.	PC	404	13.2%
5	Thomas A.	PC	401	13.1%
6	Farrell M.	PC	301	9.8%

Electorate 4,735 · Ballots cast 3,061 · EC ward code W05001671 · Back to ward index

Machen & Rudry · 2-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 28.8% Proportional quota 33.3% Difference +4.5 pts below quota Valid ballots 2,327

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Morgan C.	Labour Party	714	30.7%	Elected
2	McConnell A.	Labour Party	670	28.8%	Elected
3	Aicheler S.	Liberal Democrats	417	17.9%
4	Smith E.	Conservative and Unionist Party	283	12.2%
5	Bryant G.	Liberal Democrats	243	10.4%

Electorate 3,813 · Ballots cast 2,327 · EC ward code W05001661 · Back to ward index

Bedwas & Trethomas · 3-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 21.1% Proportional quota 25.0% Difference +3.9 pts below quota Valid ballots 4,329

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Phipps L.	Labour Party	1,197	27.7%	Elected
2	Aldworth L.	Labour Party	1,023	23.6%	Elected
3	Winslade J.	Labour Party	913	21.1%	Elected
4	Llewellyn D.	PC	469	10.8%
5	Leek J.	PC	343	7.9%
6	Lloyd K.	Conservative and Unionist Party	273	6.3%
7	Thomas P.	Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition	111	2.6%

Electorate 5,139 · Ballots cast 4,329 · EC ward code W05001652 · Back to ward index

Llanbradach · 2-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 29.5% Proportional quota 33.3% Difference +3.8 pts below quota Valid ballots 2,177

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Mann C.	PC	775	35.6%	Elected
2	Enright G.	PC	643	29.5%	Elected
3	Birkinshaw-Bird A.	Labour Party	394	18.1%
4	Birkinshaw-Bird R.	Labour Party	365	16.8%

Electorate 3,247 · Ballots cast 2,177 · EC ward code W05001660 · Back to ward index

Penyrheol · 4-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 17.3% Proportional quota 20.0% Difference +2.7 pts below quota Valid ballots 8,410

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Whittle L.	PC	1,975	23.5%	Elected
2	Scriven J.	PC	1,660	19.7%	Elected
3	Skivens S.	PC	1,626	19.3%	Elected
4	Ead G.	PC	1,458	17.3%	Elected
5	Rosser P.	Labour Party	1,159	13.8%
6	Gorman B.	Conservative and Unionist Party	532	6.3%

Electorate 9,235 · Ballots cast 8,410 · EC ward code W05001669 · Back to ward index

Penmaen · 2-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 30.8% Proportional quota 33.3% Difference +2.6 pts below quota Valid ballots 2,518

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Saralis R.	Labour Party	831	33.0%	Elected
2	Sadler J.	Labour Party	775	30.8%	Elected
3	Short A.	PC	458	18.2%
4	Jones K.	PC	454	18.0%

Electorate 4,533 · Ballots cast 2,518 · EC ward code W05001668 · Back to ward index

St. Martins · 3-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 22.7% Proportional quota 25.0% Difference +2.3 pts below quota Valid ballots 6,257

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Elsbury C.	PC	1,581	25.3%	Elected
2	Fussell J.	PC	1,522	24.3%	Elected
3	Kent S.	PC	1,421	22.7%	Elected
4	Lewis C.	Labour Party	1,165	18.6%
5	Lea R.	Conservative and Unionist Party	568	9.1%

Electorate 6,753 · Ballots cast 6,257 · EC ward code W05001674 · Back to ward index

Blackwood · 3-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 25.4% Proportional quota 25.0% Difference −0.4 pts Valid ballots 6,426

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Etheridge K.	Independent	1,877	29.2%	Elected
2	Farina-Childs A.	Independent	1,695	26.4%	Elected
3	Dix N.	Independent	1,634	25.4%	Elected
4	Jones D.	Labour Party	738	11.5%
5	Marsden H.	Labour Party	482	7.5%

Electorate 6,508 · Ballots cast 6,426 · EC ward code W05001653 · Back to ward index

Aber Valley · 3-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 25.6% Proportional quota 25.0% Difference −0.6 pts Valid ballots 3,017

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Roberts J.	PC	903	29.9%	Elected
2	Taylor J.	PC	901	29.9%	Elected
3	Bishop C.	PC	773	25.6%	Elected
4	Morgan J.	Labour Party	440	14.6%

Electorate 4,749 · Ballots cast 3,017 · EC ward code W05001648 · Back to ward index

Moriah & Pontlottyn · 2-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 34.7% Proportional quota 33.3% Difference −1.3 pts Valid ballots 2,252

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Powerll M.	Labour Party	907	40.3%	Elected
2	Harse D.	Labour Party	781	34.7%	Elected
3	Morgan R.	PC	305	13.5%
4	Davies A.	PC	259	11.5%

Electorate 4,033 · Ballots cast 2,252 · EC ward code W05001664 · Back to ward index

Cross Keys · single-seat

Marginal winner 51.5% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −1.5 pts Valid ballots 806

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Simmonds J.	Labour Party	415	51.5%	Elected
2	Cook C.	PC	334	41.4%
3	Potts T.	Liberal Democrats	57	7.1%

Electorate 2,559 · Ballots cast 806 · EC ward code W05001655 · Back to ward index

New Tredegar · 2-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 35.4% Proportional quota 33.3% Difference −2.0 pts Valid ballots 1,745

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Stenner E.	Labour Party	675	38.7%	Elected
2	Evans M.	Labour Party	617	35.4%	Elected
3	Gifford T.	Independent	299	17.1%
4	Vann F.	Independent	154	8.8%

Electorate 3,295 · Ballots cast 1,745 · EC ward code W05001666 · Back to ward index

Ystrad Mynach · 2-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 36.2% Proportional quota 33.3% Difference −2.9 pts Valid ballots 2,526

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	James M.	PC	972	38.5%	Elected
2	Angel A.	PC	914	36.2%	Elected
3	Cook M.	Labour Party	640	25.3%

Electorate 4,148 · Ballots cast 2,526 · EC ward code W05001678 · Back to ward index

Ynysddu · 2-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 42.5% Proportional quota 33.3% Difference −9.1 pts Valid ballots 2,707

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Jones J.	Independent	1,162	42.9%	Elected
2	Reed J.	Independent	1,150	42.5%	Elected
3	Marsden P.	Labour Party	213	7.9%
4	Marsden P.	Labour Party	182	6.7%

Electorate 3,036 · Ballots cast 2,707 · EC ward code W05001677 · Back to ward index

Maesycwmmer · single-seat

Marginal winner 59.9% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −9.9 pts Valid ballots 563

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Rao J.	Labour Party	337	59.9%	Elected
2	Davies G.	PC	226	40.1%

Electorate 1,964 · Ballots cast 563 · EC ward code W05001662 · Back to ward index

Argoed · single-seat

Marginal winner 61.3% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −11.3 pts Valid ballots 581

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Williams W.	Labour Party	356	61.3%	Elected
2	James I.	Independent	121	20.8%
3	Parsons S.	PC	104	17.9%

Electorate 2,038 · Ballots cast 581 · EC ward code W05001651 · Back to ward index

Gilfach · single-seat

Marginal winner 72.7% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −22.7 pts Valid ballots 472

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Andrews C.	Labour Party	343	72.7%	Elected
2	Meredith E.	PC	129	27.3%

Electorate 1,532 · Ballots cast 472 · EC ward code W05001658 · Back to ward index

Twyn Carno · single-seat

Marginal winner 80.4% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −30.4 pts Valid ballots 811

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Cuss C.	Labour Party	652	80.4%	Elected
2	Bailie P.	Independent	159	19.6%

Electorate 2,280 · Ballots cast 811 · EC ward code W05001675 · Back to ward index

Darran Valley · single-seat

Marginal winner 89.5% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −39.5 pts Valid ballots 572

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Chapman R.	Labour Party	512	89.5%	Elected
2	Hughes G.	Independent	60	10.5%

Electorate 1,898 · Ballots cast 572 · EC ward code W05001657 · Back to ward index