← Epping Forest (all cycles) · 4 May 2023 cohort

Epping Forest 2023

Local elections held 4 May 2023.

18 ward races

18 seats

5 elected below the proportional quota

27.8% of seats below quota

How to read this page

Each race below shows the share of valid ballots the marginal elected candidate actually won, and compares it to the proportional quota: the share that would be needed to be guaranteed that seat under any proportional voting method (1 seats + 1). For a 1-seat ward the quota is 50%; for 2 seats, 33.3%; for 3 seats, 25%.

Where the actual winning share fell below the quota, we show the gap as points under par — the editorial indictment. Above-par results are just majority mandates and pass without comment. The voting method is the subject of every observation here. Named candidates appear as the public election record requires; the cause being audited is the voting method, not the individuals. See the methodology page for derivations.

If votes were counted by party

Across the 18 wards in this cycle, parties received the vote totals below. The proportional column shows what each party would have won if the 18 seats had been allocated to those vote totals in proportion (how, with caveats). The Δ column is the actual seat count minus the proportional seat count — positive numbers are parties First-Past-the-Post over-represented in this council, negative are parties it under-represented.

Party	Votes	Vote %	Seats won	% of seats	Proportional seats	Proportional %	Δ
Conservative and Unionist Party	7,214	48.3%	14	77.8%	10	55.6%	+4
Liberal Democrats	3,349	22.4%	3	16.7%	4	22.2%	-1
Labour Party	2,940	19.7%	0	0.0%	4	22.2%	-4
Independent	690	4.6%	1	5.6%	0	0.0%	+1
Green Party	314	2.1%	0	0.0%	0	0.0%	0
BDP	187	1.3%	0	0.0%	0	0.0%	0
Reform UK	107	0.7%	0	0.0%	0	0.0%	0
Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition	67	0.4%	0	0.0%	0	0.0%	0
ENG DEM	34	0.2%	0	0.0%	0	0.0%	0
SHARED	32	0.2%	0	0.0%	0	0.0%	0
Total	14,934	100.0%	18	100.0%	18	100.0%	0

Vote share vs seats won

The top bar is each party's share of votes cast in this council. Below, one square per seat, coloured by the party that won it — first the actual First-Past-the-Post result, then what a proportional method would have produced from the same vote totals. Divergence between the bar and the actual grid is the indictment of the method.

Vote share

Actual seats

Proportional seats

Wards in this council

Sorted with the largest gap below the quota first. Click any ward to jump to its full result.

Grange Hill · 1 seat · won at 38.3% · +11.7 pts below quota
Waltham Abbey Paternoster · 1 seat · won at 39.4% · +10.6 pts below quota
Buckhurst Hill West · 1 seat · won at 44.4% · +5.6 pts below quota
Lower Sheering · 1 seat · won at 45.5% · +4.5 pts below quota
Shelley · 1 seat · won at 49.1% · +0.9 pts below quota
Waltham Abbey South West · 1 seat · won at 52.3% · above quota
Waltham Abbey Honey Lane · 1 seat · won at 54.4% · above quota
Epping Lindsey & Thornwood Common · 1 seat · won at 54.7% · above quota
Waltham Abbey North East · 1 seat · won at 56.5% · above quota
Chipping Ongar Greensted & Marden Ash · 1 seat · won at 57.6% · above quota
North Weald Bassett · 1 seat · won at 57.9% · above quota
Roydon · 1 seat · won at 64.9% · above quota
Lower Nazeing · 1 seat · won at 65.1% · above quota
Epping Hemnall · 1 seat · won at 65.9% · above quota
Hastingwood Matching & Sheering Village · 1 seat · won at 67.2% · above quota
Waltham Abbey High Beach · 1 seat · won at 67.5% · above quota
Lambourne · 1 seat · won at 69.6% · above quota
Broadley Common Epping Upland & Nazeing · 1 seat · won at 69.7% · above quota

Race results

Grange Hill · single-seat

Marginal winner 38.3% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference +11.7 pts below quota Valid ballots 1,090

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Morgan, L.	Independent	417	38.3%	Elected
2	Saunders, D.	Conservative and Unionist Party	374	34.3%
3	Gollo, O.	Labour Party	240	22.0%
4	Hanch, T.	Green Party	59	5.4%

Electorate 5,143 · Ballots cast 1,090 · Back to ward index

Waltham Abbey Paternoster · single-seat

Marginal winner 39.4% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference +10.6 pts below quota Valid ballots 743

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Markham, M.	Conservative and Unionist Party	293	39.4%	Elected
2	Greyson, R.	Labour Party	250	33.6%
3	Leppert, J.	BDP	187	25.2%
4	Gardner, B.	Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition	13	1.7%

Electorate 3,374 · Ballots cast 743 · Back to ward index

Buckhurst Hill West · single-seat

Marginal winner 44.4% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference +5.6 pts below quota Valid ballots 1,645

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Patel, J.	Conservative and Unionist Party	730	44.4%	Elected
2	Kasperkowicz, T.	Labour Party	273	16.6%
3	Share-Bernia, J.	Independent	222	13.5%
4	Matharu, I.	Liberal Democrats	190	11.6%
5	Fricker, A.	Green Party	147	8.9%
6	Vesselinov, L.	Independent	51	3.1%
7	Hall, T.	SHARED	32	1.9%

Electorate 5,226 · Ballots cast 1,645 · Back to ward index

Lower Sheering · single-seat

Marginal winner 45.5% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference +4.5 pts below quota Valid ballots 497

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Paine, L.	Liberal Democrats	226	45.5%	Elected
2	Baker, S.	Conservative and Unionist Party	206	41.4%
3	Williams, J.	Labour Party	65	13.1%

Electorate 1,706 · Ballots cast 497 · Back to ward index

Shelley · single-seat

Marginal winner 49.1% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference +0.9 pts below quota Valid ballots 330

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Bedford, N.	Conservative and Unionist Party	162	49.1%	Elected
2	Acornley, T.	Labour Party	110	33.3%
3	Tilbrook, R.	ENG DEM	34	10.3%
4	Sinfield, P.	Liberal Democrats	24	7.3%

Electorate 1,894 · Ballots cast 330 · Back to ward index

Waltham Abbey South West · single-seat

Marginal winner 52.3% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −2.3 pts Valid ballots 597

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Parsons, J.	Conservative and Unionist Party	312	52.3%	Elected
2	Wild, D.	Labour Party	133	22.3%
3	Plummer, D.	Green Party	108	18.1%
4	Beecroft, M.	Liberal Democrats	32	5.4%
5	Asker, J.	Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition	12	2.0%

Electorate 3,297 · Ballots cast 597 · Back to ward index

Waltham Abbey Honey Lane · single-seat

Marginal winner 54.4% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −4.4 pts Valid ballots 896

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Kane, S.	Conservative and Unionist Party	487	54.4%	Elected
2	Harris, S.	Labour Party	367	41.0%
3	Pattison, I.	Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition	42	4.7%

Electorate 4,435 · Ballots cast 896 · Back to ward index

Epping Lindsey & Thornwood Common · single-seat

Marginal winner 54.7% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −4.7 pts Valid ballots 1,922

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Sharif, R.	Liberal Democrats	1,052	54.7%	Elected
2	Jones, S.	Conservative and Unionist Party	750	39.0%
3	Bullough, S.	Labour Party	120	6.2%

Electorate 5,284 · Ballots cast 1,922 · Back to ward index

Waltham Abbey North East · single-seat

Marginal winner 56.5% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −6.5 pts Valid ballots 754

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Lucas, J.	Conservative and Unionist Party	426	56.5%	Elected
2	Ayre, A.	Labour Party	208	27.6%
3	Chadburn, P.	Liberal Democrats	120	15.9%

Electorate 3,125 · Ballots cast 754 · Back to ward index

Chipping Ongar Greensted & Marden Ash · single-seat

Marginal winner 57.6% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −7.6 pts Valid ballots 902

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Keska, P.	Conservative and Unionist Party	520	57.6%	Elected
2	Huish, R.	Labour Party	168	18.6%
3	Richardson, M.	Liberal Democrats	157	17.4%
4	Bell, P.	Reform UK	57	6.3%

Electorate 3,380 · Ballots cast 902 · Back to ward index

North Weald Bassett · single-seat

Marginal winner 57.9% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −7.9 pts Valid ballots 876

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	McIvor, J.	Conservative and Unionist Party	507	57.9%	Elected
2	Hind, K.	Labour Party	221	25.2%
3	Barnard, E.	Liberal Democrats	148	16.9%

Electorate 3,603 · Ballots cast 876 · Back to ward index

Roydon · single-seat

Marginal winner 64.9% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −14.9 pts Valid ballots 485

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Whitbread, C.	Conservative and Unionist Party	315	64.9%	Elected
2	Kyriacou-Drummond, A.	Labour Party	170	35.1%

Electorate 1,724 · Ballots cast 485 · Back to ward index

Lower Nazeing · single-seat

Marginal winner 65.1% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −15.1 pts Valid ballots 720

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Bassett, R.	Conservative and Unionist Party	469	65.1%	Elected
2	Marsh, E.	Labour Party	104	14.4%
3	Thatcher, E.	Liberal Democrats	97	13.5%
4	Harvey, M.	Reform UK	50	6.9%

Electorate 3,360 · Ballots cast 720 · Back to ward index

Epping Hemnall · single-seat

Marginal winner 65.9% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −15.9 pts Valid ballots 1,703

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	McCredie, C.	Liberal Democrats	1,123	65.9%	Elected
2	Whitbread, M.	Conservative and Unionist Party	450	26.4%
3	Collier, I.	Labour Party	130	7.6%

Electorate 4,852 · Ballots cast 1,703 · Back to ward index

Hastingwood Matching & Sheering Village · single-seat

Marginal winner 67.2% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −17.2 pts Valid ballots 564

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Morgan, R.	Conservative and Unionist Party	379	67.2%	Elected
2	Gwynn, M.	Labour Party	123	21.8%
3	Ward, P.	Liberal Democrats	62	11.0%

Electorate 1,965 · Ballots cast 564 · Back to ward index

Waltham Abbey High Beach · single-seat

Marginal winner 67.5% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −17.5 pts Valid ballots 428

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Matthews, T.	Conservative and Unionist Party	289	67.5%	Elected
2	Morris, M.	Labour Party	139	32.5%

Electorate 2,024 · Ballots cast 428 · Back to ward index

Lambourne · single-seat

Marginal winner 69.6% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −19.6 pts Valid ballots 369

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	McCann, C.	Conservative and Unionist Party	257	69.6%	Elected
2	Wingfield, A.	Labour Party	62	16.8%
3	Davies, N.	Liberal Democrats	50	13.6%

Electorate 1,578 · Ballots cast 369 · Back to ward index

Broadley Common Epping Upland & Nazeing · single-seat

Marginal winner 69.7% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −19.7 pts Valid ballots 413

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Green, A.	Conservative and Unionist Party	288	69.7%	Elected
2	Griffiths, R.	Liberal Democrats	68	16.5%
3	Sangha, S.	Labour Party	57	13.8%

Electorate 1,755 · Ballots cast 413 · Back to ward index