← Merthyr Tydfil (all cycles) · 4 May 2017 cohort
Merthyr Tydfil 2017
Local elections held 4 May 2017.
How to read this page
Each race below shows the share of valid ballots the marginal elected candidate actually won, and compares it to the proportional quota: the share they'd need to clinch the seat under any proportional voting method (1 seats + 1). For a 1-seat ward the quota is 50%; for 2 seats, 33.3%; for 3 seats, 25%.
Where the actual winning share fell below the quota, we show the signed gap as points below quota (a negative number) — the editorial indictment. Above-quota results clear the bar and pass without comment. The voting method is the subject of every observation here. Named candidates appear as the public election record requires; the cause being audited is the voting method, not the individuals. See the methodology page for derivations.
If votes were counted by party
Across the 11 wards in this cycle, parties received the vote totals below. The proportional column shows what each party would have won if the 33 seats had been shared out in proportion to votes received (how, with caveats). The Δ column is the actual seat count minus the proportional seat count — positive numbers are parties First-Past-the-Post over-represented; negative are parties it under-represented.
| Party | Votes | Vote % | Seats won | % of seats | Proportional seats | Proportional % | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour Party | 22,301 | 47.0% | 15 | 45.5% | 17 | 51.5% | -2 |
| Independent | 20,810 | 43.9% | 17 | 51.5% | 15 | 45.5% | +2 |
| Merthyr | 2,368 | 5.0% | 1 | 3.0% | 1 | 3.0% | 0 |
| Liberal Democrats | 771 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Plaid Cymru | 685 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Conservative Party | 267 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Communist Party of Britain | 201 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Total | 47,403 | 100.0% | 33 | 100.0% | 33 | 100.0% | 0 |
Vote share vs seats won
The top bar is each party's share of votes cast in this council. Below, one square per seat, coloured by the party that won it — first the actual First-Past-the-Post result, then what a proportional method would have produced from the same vote totals. Divergence between the bar and the actual grid is the indictment of the method.
Council composition: what this election replaced
The 2017 cycle was an all-out election — every seat was contested. The two opencouncildata snapshots below show the council immediately after the 2017 election (current) and on the eve of it (2016), so you can see what the result replaced.
Wards in this council
Sorted with the largest gap below the quota first. Click any ward to jump to its full result.
- Cyfarthfa · 3 seats · won at 41.7% · above quota
- Merthyr Vale · 2 seats · won at 53.1% · above quota
- Treharris · 3 seats · won at 44.8% · above quota
- Town · 4 seats · won at 45.8% · above quota
- Gurnos · 4 seats · won at 51.9% · above quota
- Penydarren · 3 seats · won at 57.1% · above quota
- Dowlais · 4 seats · won at 53.5% · above quota
- Vaynor · 2 seats · won at 68.0% · above quota
- Bedlinog · 2 seats · won at 68.2% · above quota
- Park · 3 seats · won at 70.5% · above quota
- Plymouth · 3 seats · won at 86.6% · above quota
Race results
Cyfarthfa · 3-seat (bloc vote)
Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~3× smaller. 41.7% Proportional quota 25.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +16.7 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 3 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 2,882
This is a 3-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~3×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 3, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 3. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geraint Thomas | Independent | 1,369 | 15.8% | 47.5% | +22.5 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Paul Brown | Merthyr | 1,300 | 15.0% | 45.1% | +20.1 pts | Elected |
| 3 | David Chaplin | Labour Party | 1,202 | 13.9% | 41.7% | +16.7 pts | Elected |
| 4 | Margaret Davies | Labour Party | 1,137 | 13.2% | 39.5% | — | |
| 5 | Carol Estebanez | Labour Party | 1,072 | 12.4% | 37.2% | — | |
| 6 | Terry Thomas | Merthyr | 1,068 | 12.4% | 37.1% | — | |
| 7 | Bleddyn Hancock | Independent | 812 | 9.4% | 28.2% | — | |
| 8 | Mark Evans | Plaid Cymru | 685 | 7.9% | 23.8% | — |
Merthyr Vale · 2-seat (bloc vote)
Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~2× smaller. 53.1% Proportional quota 33.3% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +19.7 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 2 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 959
This is a 2-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~2×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 2, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 2. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darren Roberts | Labour Party | 698 | 36.4% | 72.8% | +39.5 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Scott Thomas | Labour Party | 509 | 26.5% | 53.1% | +19.7 pts | Elected |
| 3 | Jeff Edwards | Independent | 445 | 23.2% | 46.4% | — | |
| 4 | Lynne Colston | Independent | 266 | 13.9% | 27.7% | — |
Treharris · 3-seat (bloc vote)
Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~3× smaller. 44.8% Proportional quota 25.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +19.8 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 3 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,586
This is a 3-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~3×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 3, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 3. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gareth Richards | Labour Party | 1,136 | 23.9% | 71.6% | +46.6 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Ernie Galsworthy | Labour Party | 816 | 17.2% | 51.5% | +26.5 pts | Elected |
| 3 | Ian Thomas | Labour Party | 710 | 14.9% | 44.8% | +19.8 pts | Elected |
| 4 | Lee Chard | Independent | 589 | 12.4% | 37.1% | — | |
| 5 | Anne McAll | Independent | 503 | 10.6% | 31.7% | — | |
| 6 | Glenn Price | Independent | 437 | 9.2% | 27.6% | — | |
| 7 | Paul Smithers | Independent | 361 | 7.6% | 22.8% | — | |
| 8 | Brendan d'Cruz | Liberal Democrats | 206 | 4.3% | 13.0% | — |
Town · 4-seat (bloc vote)
Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~4× smaller. 45.8% Proportional quota 20.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +25.8 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 4 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 2,113
This is a 4-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 4 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~4×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 4, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 4 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 4. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | John Thomas | Independent | 1,121 | 13.3% | 53.1% | +33.1 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Kevin O'Neill | Independent | 1,002 | 11.9% | 47.4% | +27.4 pts | Elected |
| 3 | Andrew Barry | Independent | 976 | 11.5% | 46.2% | +26.2 pts | Elected |
| 4 | Dai Jones | Labour Party | 967 | 11.4% | 45.8% | +25.8 pts | Elected |
| 5 | Linda Matthews | Labour Party | 745 | 8.8% | 35.3% | — | |
| 6 | Jenny Davies | Labour Party | 708 | 8.4% | 33.5% | — | |
| 7 | Shaun O'Malley | Independent | 658 | 7.8% | 31.1% | — | |
| 8 | Sian Slater | Labour Party | 635 | 7.5% | 30.1% | — | |
| 9 | Joshua Dunn | Independent | 588 | 7.0% | 27.8% | — | |
| 10 | Rowan Powell | Independent | 376 | 4.4% | 17.8% | — | |
| 11 | Bob Griffin | Liberal Democrats | 253 | 3.0% | 12.0% | — | |
| 12 | Cameron Sullivan | Liberal Democrats | 222 | 2.6% | 10.5% | — | |
| 13 | Tom Roberts | Communist Party of Britain | 201 | 2.4% | 9.5% | — |
Gurnos · 4-seat (bloc vote)
Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~4× smaller. 51.9% Proportional quota 20.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +31.9 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 4 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 922
This is a 4-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 4 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~4×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 4, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 4 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 4. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lee Davies | Independent | 569 | 15.4% | 61.7% | +41.7 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Rhonda Braithwaite | Labour Party | 541 | 14.7% | 58.7% | +38.7 pts | Elected |
| 3 | Clive Tovey | Independent | 486 | 13.2% | 52.7% | +32.7 pts | Elected |
| 4 | Bill Smith | Labour Party | 479 | 13.0% | 51.9% | +31.9 pts | Elected |
| 5 | Deborah Isaac | Labour Party | 423 | 11.5% | 45.9% | — | |
| 6 | Mike O'Neill | Labour Party | 421 | 11.4% | 45.6% | — | |
| 7 | Mikey Mochan | Independent | 402 | 10.9% | 43.6% | — | |
| 8 | Gerwyn Butler | Independent | 368 | 10.0% | 39.9% | — |
Penydarren · 3-seat (bloc vote)
Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~3× smaller. 57.1% Proportional quota 25.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +32.1 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 3 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,132
This is a 3-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~3×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 3, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 3. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Gibbs | Independent | 656 | 19.3% | 57.9% | +32.9 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Chris Davies | Independent | 649 | 19.1% | 57.3% | +32.3 pts | Elected |
| 3 | David Isaac | Labour Party | 647 | 19.0% | 57.1% | +32.1 pts | Elected |
| 4 | Dougy Evans | Independent | 515 | 15.2% | 45.5% | — | |
| 5 | John McCarthy | Labour Party | 467 | 13.7% | 41.2% | — | |
| 6 | Dan Beard | Labour Party | 463 | 13.6% | 40.9% | — |
Dowlais · 4-seat (bloc vote)
Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~4× smaller. 53.5% Proportional quota 20.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +33.5 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 4 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,453
This is a 4-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 4 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~4×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 4, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 4 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 4. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Declan Sammon | Independent | 1,122 | 19.3% | 77.2% | +57.2 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Tony Rogers | Independent | 863 | 14.8% | 59.4% | +39.4 pts | Elected |
| 3 | David Hughes | Independent | 782 | 13.5% | 53.8% | +33.8 pts | Elected |
| 4 | Julian Amos | Independent | 777 | 13.4% | 53.5% | +33.5 pts | Elected |
| 5 | Phil Williams | Labour Party | 631 | 10.9% | 43.4% | — | |
| 6 | Ray Thomas | Labour Party | 570 | 9.8% | 39.2% | — | |
| 7 | Tom Lewis | Labour Party | 537 | 9.2% | 37.0% | — | |
| 8 | Simon Williams | Labour Party | 531 | 9.1% | 36.5% | — |
Vaynor · 2-seat (bloc vote)
Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~2× smaller. 68.0% Proportional quota 33.3% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +34.6 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 2 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,358
This is a 2-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~2×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 2, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 2. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Howard Barrett | Independent | 948 | 34.9% | 69.8% | +36.5 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Lisa Mytton | Independent | 923 | 34.0% | 68.0% | +34.6 pts | Elected |
| 3 | Anthony Owen | Labour Party | 474 | 17.5% | 34.9% | — | |
| 4 | Emma Karan | Labour Party | 371 | 13.7% | 27.3% | — |
Bedlinog · 2-seat (bloc vote)
Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~2× smaller. 68.2% Proportional quota 33.3% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +34.8 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 2 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,054
This is a 2-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~2×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 2, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 2. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malcolm Colbran | Independent | 727 | 34.5% | 69.0% | +35.7 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Sherelle Jago | Independent | 718 | 34.1% | 68.2% | +34.8 pts | Elected |
| 3 | Helen Thomas | Labour Party | 288 | 13.7% | 27.3% | — | |
| 4 | Jeffrey Beard | Labour Party | 284 | 13.5% | 27.0% | — | |
| 5 | Jasmine Sakura-Rose | Liberal Democrats | 90 | 4.3% | 8.5% | — |
Park · 3-seat (bloc vote)
Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~3× smaller. 70.5% Proportional quota 25.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +45.5 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 3 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 977
This is a 3-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~3×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 3, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 3. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tanya Skinner | Independent | 802 | 27.4% | 82.1% | +57.1 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Clive Jones | Labour Party | 772 | 26.3% | 79.0% | +54.0 pts | Elected |
| 3 | Chris Barry | Labour Party | 689 | 23.5% | 70.5% | +45.5 pts | Elected |
| 4 | Brendan Toomey | Labour Party | 667 | 22.8% | 68.3% | — |
Plymouth · 3-seat (bloc vote)
Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~3× smaller. 86.6% Proportional quota 25.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +61.6 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 3 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 993
This is a 3-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~3×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 3, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 3. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gareth Lewis | Labour Party | 967 | 32.5% | 97.4% | +72.4 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Brent Carter | Labour Party | 884 | 29.7% | 89.1% | +64.1 pts | Elected |
| 3 | Harvey Jones | Labour Party | 860 | 28.9% | 86.6% | +61.6 pts | Elected |
| 4 | Narinder Singh | Conservative Party | 267 | 9.0% | 26.9% | — |