← Mole Valley (all cycles) · 2 May 2024 cohort

Mole Valley 2024

Local elections held 2 May 2024.

13 ward races
14 seats
5 elected below the proportional quota
35.7% of seats below quota

How to read this page

Each race below shows the share of valid ballots the marginal elected candidate actually won, and compares it to the proportional quota: the share that would be needed to be guaranteed that seat under any proportional voting method (1 seats + 1). For a 1-seat ward the quota is 50%; for 2 seats, 33.3%; for 3 seats, 25%.

Where the actual winning share fell below the quota, we show the gap as points under par — the editorial indictment. Above-par results are just majority mandates and pass without comment. The voting method is the subject of every observation here. Named candidates appear as the public election record requires; the cause being audited is the voting method, not the individuals. See the methodology page for derivations.

If votes were counted by party

Across the 13 wards in this cycle, parties received the vote totals below. The proportional column shows what each party would have won if the 14 seats had been allocated to those vote totals in proportion (how, with caveats). The Δ column is the actual seat count minus the proportional seat count — positive numbers are parties First-Past-the-Post over-represented in this council, negative are parties it under-represented.

PartyVotesVote %Seats won% of seatsProportional seatsProportional %Δ
Liberal Democrats13,48147.4%1285.7%750.0%+5
Conservative and Unionist Party7,34225.8%00.0%428.6%-4
Green Party2,94010.3%00.0%17.1%-1
Independent2,5358.9%214.3%17.1%+1
Labour Party1,9316.8%00.0%17.1%-1
Reform UK1860.7%00.0%00.0%0
Total28,415100.0%14100.0%14100.0%0

Vote share vs seats won

The top bar is each party's share of votes cast in this council. Below, one square per seat, coloured by the party that won it — first the actual First-Past-the-Post result, then what a proportional method would have produced from the same vote totals. Divergence between the bar and the actual grid is the indictment of the method.

Vote share
Actual seats
Proportional seats

Wards in this council

Sorted with the largest gap below the quota first. Click any ward to jump to its full result.

Race results

Capel, Leigh, Newdigate and Charlwood · 2-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 20.6% Proportional quota 33.3% Difference +12.7 pts below quota Valid ballots 3,696

RankCandidatePartyVotesShareElected
1Havard, K.Liberal Democrats85723.2%Elected
2van den Bogerd, D.Liberal Democrats76320.6%Elected
3McCorquodale, D.Conservative and Unionist Party65817.8%
4Saunders, M.Conservative and Unionist Party65717.8%
5Scott, L.Green Party40010.8%
6Bolton, G.Green Party2185.9%
7Hay, M.Labour Party862.3%
8Nasskau, L.Labour Party571.5%

Electorate 5,248 · Ballots cast 3,696 · EC ward code E05015346 · Back to ward index

Holmwoods and Beare Green · single-seat

Marginal winner 45.4% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference +4.6 pts below quota Valid ballots 1,833

RankCandidatePartyVotesShareElected
1Wellman, C.Liberal Democrats83245.4%Elected
2Watson, M.Conservative and Unionist Party55030.0%
3Keats, S.Reform UK18610.1%
4Roche, J.Green Party1528.3%
5Foster, C.Labour Party1136.2%

Electorate 5,006 · Ballots cast 1,833 · EC ward code E05015350 · Back to ward index

Leatherhead South · single-seat

Marginal winner 49.0% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference +1.0 pts below quota Valid ballots 1,979

RankCandidatePartyVotesShareElected
1Parsons, G.Liberal Democrats97049.0%Elected
2Hall, T.Conservative and Unionist Party71436.1%
3Clark, A.Labour Party1648.3%
4Awcock, M.Green Party1316.6%

Electorate 4,533 · Ballots cast 1,979 · EC ward code E05015352 · Back to ward index

Dorking North · single-seat

Marginal winner 49.6% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference +0.4 pts below quota Valid ballots 2,391

RankCandidatePartyVotesShareElected
1Rosam, E.Liberal Democrats1,18649.6%Elected
2Crook, C.Green Party60825.4%
3Botting, L.Conservative and Unionist Party30012.5%
4Mansfield, C.Labour Party29712.4%

Electorate 5,550 · Ballots cast 2,391 · EC ward code E05015347 · Back to ward index

Brockham, Betchworth, Buckland, Box Hill and Headley · single-seat

Marginal winner 50.2% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −0.2 pts Valid ballots 2,096

RankCandidatePartyVotesShareElected
1Keay, P.Liberal Democrats1,05250.2%Elected
2Austin, R.Conservative and Unionist Party61729.4%
3Butterworth, P.Green Party24511.7%
4Humphrey, N.Labour Party1828.7%

Electorate 5,165 · Ballots cast 2,096 · EC ward code E05015345 · Back to ward index

Leatherhead North · single-seat

Marginal winner 51.9% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −1.9 pts Valid ballots 1,293

RankCandidatePartyVotesShareElected
1Wear, B.Liberal Democrats67151.9%Elected
2Gibbs, A.Conservative and Unionist Party32725.3%
3Roper, C.Labour Party19515.1%
4Smith, G.Green Party1007.7%

Electorate 4,506 · Ballots cast 1,293 · EC ward code E05015351 · Back to ward index

Ashtead Park · single-seat

Marginal winner 53.3% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −3.3 pts Valid ballots 2,059

RankCandidatePartyVotesShareElected
1Sevenoaks, G.Independent1,09853.3%Elected
2Shimmin, P.Liberal Democrats37518.2%
3Jones, H.Conservative and Unionist Party36817.9%
4Eagle, S.Labour Party1346.5%
5Stewart, S.Green Party844.1%

Electorate 5,430 · Ballots cast 2,059 · EC ward code E05015342 · Back to ward index

Mickleham, Westcott and Okewood · single-seat

Marginal winner 57.0% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −7.0 pts Valid ballots 2,022

RankCandidatePartyVotesShareElected
1Mursaleen-Plank, L.Liberal Democrats1,15357.0%Elected
2Mir, D.Conservative and Unionist Party60329.8%
3Poke, J.Green Party1939.5%
4Stringer, J.Labour Party733.6%

Electorate 5,187 · Ballots cast 2,022 · EC ward code E05015353 · Back to ward index

Fetcham · single-seat

Marginal winner 58.3% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −8.3 pts Valid ballots 2,189

RankCandidatePartyVotesShareElected
1Joseph, C.Liberal Democrats1,27658.3%Elected
2Austin, P.Conservative and Unionist Party68631.3%
3Sherring, J.Green Party1396.3%
4Heath, B.Labour Party884.0%

Electorate 5,441 · Ballots cast 2,189 · EC ward code E05015349 · Back to ward index

Dorking South · single-seat

Marginal winner 58.8% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −8.8 pts Valid ballots 2,102

RankCandidatePartyVotesShareElected
1Wright, N.Liberal Democrats1,23658.8%Elected
2Foulston, M.Conservative and Unionist Party34316.3%
3Crook, M.Green Party30114.3%
4Stroud, K.Labour Party22210.6%

Electorate 5,650 · Ballots cast 2,102 · EC ward code E05015348 · Back to ward index

Ashtead Lanes and Common · single-seat

Marginal winner 58.9% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −8.9 pts Valid ballots 2,440

RankCandidatePartyVotesShareElected
1Smith, A.Independent1,43758.9%Elected
2Waugh, J.Liberal Democrats45018.4%
3Walker, L.Conservative and Unionist Party25910.6%
4Gilchrist, S.Labour Party1646.7%
5Stewart, E.Green Party1305.3%

Electorate 5,953 · Ballots cast 2,440 · EC ward code E05015341 · Back to ward index

Bookham West · single-seat

Marginal winner 60.6% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −10.6 pts Valid ballots 2,036

RankCandidatePartyVotesShareElected
1Miller, C.Liberal Democrats1,23460.6%Elected
2Gunn, B.Conservative and Unionist Party56427.7%
3Case, F.Green Party1386.8%
4Kent, T.Labour Party1004.9%

Electorate 4,983 · Ballots cast 2,036 · EC ward code E05015344 · Back to ward index

Bookham East and Eastwick Park · single-seat

Marginal winner 62.6% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −12.6 pts Valid ballots 2,279

RankCandidatePartyVotesShareElected
1Matthews, A.Liberal Democrats1,42662.6%Elected
2Calland, L.Conservative and Unionist Party69630.5%
3Green, P.Green Party1014.4%
4Mansfield, W.Labour Party562.5%

Electorate 4,876 · Ballots cast 2,279 · EC ward code E05015343 · Back to ward index