← New Forest (all cycles) · 4 May 2023 cohort

New Forest 2023

Local elections held 4 May 2023.

26 ward races

48 seats

45 elected below the proportional quota

93.8% of seats below quota

How to read this page

Each race below shows the share of valid ballots the marginal elected candidate actually won, and compares it to the proportional quota: the share that would be needed to be guaranteed that seat under any proportional voting method (1 seats + 1). For a 1-seat ward the quota is 50%; for 2 seats, 33.3%; for 3 seats, 25%.

Where the actual winning share fell below the quota, we show the gap as points under par — the editorial indictment. Above-par results are just majority mandates and pass without comment. The voting method is the subject of every observation here. Named candidates appear as the public election record requires; the cause being audited is the voting method, not the individuals. See the methodology page for derivations.

If votes were counted by party

Across the 26 wards in this cycle, parties received the vote totals below. The proportional column shows what each party would have won if the 48 seats had been allocated to those vote totals in proportion (how, with caveats). The Δ column is the actual seat count minus the proportional seat count — positive numbers are parties First-Past-the-Post over-represented in this council, negative are parties it under-represented.

Party	Votes	Vote %	Seats won	% of seats	Proportional seats	Proportional %	Δ
Conservative and Unionist Party	34,767	42.1%	26	54.2%	21	43.8%	+5
Liberal Democrats	24,010	29.1%	14	29.2%	14	29.2%	0
Labour Party	11,845	14.3%	1	2.1%	7	14.6%	-6
Independent	6,111	7.4%	4	8.3%	3	6.3%	+1
Green Party	5,713	6.9%	3	6.3%	3	6.3%	0
Britain First	108	0.1%	0	0.0%	0	0.0%	0
Total	82,554	100.0%	48	100.0%	48	100.0%	0

Vote share vs seats won

The top bar is each party's share of votes cast in this council. Below, one square per seat, coloured by the party that won it — first the actual First-Past-the-Post result, then what a proportional method would have produced from the same vote totals. Divergence between the bar and the actual grid is the indictment of the method.

Vote share

Actual seats

Proportional seats

Wards in this council

Sorted with the largest gap below the quota first. Click any ward to jump to its full result.

Ringwood South · 2 seats · won at 14.9% · +18.5 pts below quota
Hardley, Holbury & North Blackfield · 2 seats · won at 16.7% · +16.7 pts below quota
Totton Central · 2 seats · won at 17.5% · +15.8 pts below quota
Ringwood North & Ellingham · 2 seats · won at 20.2% · +13.2 pts below quota
Bransgore, Burley, Sopley & Ringwood East · 2 seats · won at 20.2% · +13.1 pts below quota
Lymington · 2 seats · won at 20.6% · +12.8 pts below quota
Marchwood & Eling · 2 seats · won at 22.3% · +11.1 pts below quota
Totton North · 3 seats · won at 14.0% · +11.0 pts below quota
Pennington · 2 seats · won at 22.5% · +10.8 pts below quota
Totton South · 2 seats · won at 22.7% · +10.6 pts below quota
Milford & Hordle · 3 seats · won at 15.7% · +9.3 pts below quota
Ballard · 1 seat · won at 40.7% · +9.3 pts below quota
Fawley, Blackfield, Calshot & Langley · 2 seats · won at 24.7% · +8.7 pts below quota
Ashurst, Bramshaw, Copythorne & Netley Marsh · 2 seats · won at 24.8% · +8.5 pts below quota
Hythe Central · 2 seats · won at 25.6% · +7.7 pts below quota
Ashley, Bashley & Fernhill · 2 seats · won at 26.3% · +7.1 pts below quota
Fordingbridge, Godshill & Hyde · 2 seats · won at 26.6% · +6.8 pts below quota
Milton · 2 seats · won at 26.8% · +6.5 pts below quota
Dibden & Dibden Purlieu · 2 seats · won at 27.6% · +5.7 pts below quota
Hythe South · 2 seats · won at 28.1% · +5.3 pts below quota
Barton & Becton · 2 seats · won at 28.1% · +5.2 pts below quota
Lyndhurst & Minstead · 1 seat · won at 48.8% · +1.2 pts below quota
Downlands & Forest North · 1 seat · won at 49.0% · +1.0 pts below quota
Forest & Solent · 1 seat · won at 50.4% · above quota
Brockenhurst & Denny Lodge · 1 seat · won at 50.9% · above quota
Sway · 1 seat · won at 55.3% · above quota

Race results

Ringwood South · 2-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 14.9% Proportional quota 33.3% Difference +18.5 pts below quota Valid ballots 3,476

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Heron, J.	Conservative and Unionist Party	534	15.4%	Elected
2	Swaine, S.	Conservative and Unionist Party	517	14.9%	Elected
3	Swyer, J.	Labour Party	487	14.0%
4	Turner, G.	Labour Party	482	13.9%
5	Day, P.	Independent	481	13.8%
6	Deboos, G.	Independent	464	13.3%
7	Rowe, T.	Green Party	187	5.4%
8	Allen, J.	Liberal Democrats	180	5.2%
9	McDonald, C.	Liberal Democrats	144	4.1%

Electorate 5,959 · Ballots cast 3,476 · Back to ward index

Hardley, Holbury & North Blackfield · 2-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 16.7% Proportional quota 33.3% Difference +16.7 pts below quota Valid ballots 2,356

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Glass, A.	Conservative and Unionist Party	463	19.7%	Elected
2	Armstrong, P.	Independent	393	16.7%	Elected
3	Poole, J.	Conservative and Unionist Party	375	15.9%
4	Saunders, P.	Independent	253	10.7%
5	Johnstone, S.	Labour Party	238	10.1%
6	Read, S.	Liberal Democrats	236	10.0%
7	Roberts, C.	Labour Party	221	9.4%
8	Cole, D.	Liberal Democrats	177	7.5%

Electorate 5,296 · Ballots cast 2,356 · Back to ward index

Totton Central · 2-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 17.5% Proportional quota 33.3% Difference +15.8 pts below quota Valid ballots 3,406

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Sleep, J.	Conservative and Unionist Party	647	19.0%	Elected
2	Murray, I.	Conservative and Unionist Party	596	17.5%	Elected
3	Shepherd, S.	Liberal Democrats	568	16.7%
4	Kangarani, M.	Liberal Democrats	555	16.3%
5	Johnstone, A.	Labour Party	330	9.7%
6	Smith, D.	Labour Party	287	8.4%
7	Coombes, I.	Independent	243	7.1%
8	Orchard, F.	Independent	180	5.3%

Electorate 5,653 · Ballots cast 3,406 · Back to ward index

Ringwood North & Ellingham · 2-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 20.2% Proportional quota 33.3% Difference +13.2 pts below quota Valid ballots 3,739

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Thierry, M.	Conservative and Unionist Party	788	21.1%	Elected
2	Haywood, J.	Labour Party	754	20.2%	Elected
3	Kelleher, P.	Labour Party	746	20.0%
4	Scott, D.	Conservative and Unionist Party	726	19.4%
5	Fenner, J.	Green Party	253	6.8%
6	Dadford, L.	Liberal Democrats	248	6.6%
7	Barron, L.	Liberal Democrats	224	6.0%

Electorate 6,148 · Ballots cast 3,739 · Back to ward index

Bransgore, Burley, Sopley & Ringwood East · 2-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 20.2% Proportional quota 33.3% Difference +13.1 pts below quota Valid ballots 3,583

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Linford, N.	Independent	805	22.5%	Elected
2	Millington, N.	Green Party	725	20.2%	Elected
3	Adams, J.	Conservative and Unionist Party	649	18.1%
4	Collar, A.	Green Party	581	16.2%
5	Samber, D.	Conservative and Unionist Party	514	14.3%
6	Haywood, P.	Labour Party	179	5.0%
7	Flack, K.	Labour Party	130	3.6%

Electorate 5,491 · Ballots cast 3,583 · Back to ward index

Lymington · 2-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 20.6% Proportional quota 33.3% Difference +12.8 pts below quota Valid ballots 4,277

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Dunning, B.	Conservative and Unionist Party	962	22.5%	Elected
2	England, J.	Independent	880	20.6%	Elected
3	Smith, S.	Conservative and Unionist Party	723	16.9%
4	Phillips, H.	Liberal Democrats	586	13.7%
5	Jearrad, T.	Liberal Democrats	528	12.3%
6	Hart, T.	Labour Party	348	8.1%
7	Weber, J.	Labour Party	250	5.8%

Electorate 6,422 · Ballots cast 4,277 · Back to ward index

Marchwood & Eling · 2-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 22.3% Proportional quota 33.3% Difference +11.1 pts below quota Valid ballots 3,484

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Young, R.	Conservative and Unionist Party	938	26.9%	Elected
2	Mballa, P.	Liberal Democrats	776	22.3%	Elected
3	Bennison, S.	Conservative and Unionist Party	694	19.9%
4	Shelley, L.	Liberal Democrats	685	19.7%
5	Kershaw, K.	Labour Party	197	5.7%
6	Moran, D.	Labour Party	194	5.6%

Electorate 6,061 · Ballots cast 3,484 · Back to ward index

Totton North · 3-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 14.0% Proportional quota 25.0% Difference +11.0 pts below quota Valid ballots 5,546

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Penman, N.	Conservative and Unionist Party	1,054	19.0%	Elected
2	Penny, D.	Conservative and Unionist Party	814	14.7%	Elected
3	Crisell, K.	Conservative and Unionist Party	774	14.0%	Elected
4	Francis, L.	Liberal Democrats	505	9.1%
5	Brunsdon, A.	Liberal Democrats	501	9.0%
6	Hardingson, S.	Liberal Democrats	457	8.2%
7	Garrick, L.	Labour Party	340	6.1%
8	Bishop, R.	Labour Party	333	6.0%
9	Garrick, K.	Labour Party	322	5.8%
10	Scrivens, R.	Independent	229	4.1%
11	Lagdon, C.	Independent	217	3.9%

Electorate 8,484 · Ballots cast 5,546 · Back to ward index

Pennington · 2-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 22.5% Proportional quota 33.3% Difference +10.8 pts below quota Valid ballots 3,489

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Davies, J.	Liberal Democrats	1,007	28.9%	Elected
2	McCarthy, C.	Liberal Democrats	785	22.5%	Elected
3	Brindley, T.	Conservative and Unionist Party	612	17.5%
4	Loveless, I.	Conservative and Unionist Party	541	15.5%
5	Bridges, B.	Labour Party	283	8.1%
6	Sawkins, J.	Labour Party	261	7.5%

Electorate 6,247 · Ballots cast 3,489 · Back to ward index

Totton South · 2-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 22.7% Proportional quota 33.3% Difference +10.6 pts below quota Valid ballots 3,060

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Harrison, D.	Liberal Democrats	904	29.5%	Elected
2	Rackham, C.	Liberal Democrats	695	22.7%	Elected
3	Carter, L.	Conservative and Unionist Party	607	19.8%
4	Harris, L.	Conservative and Unionist Party	506	16.5%
5	Goodfellow, A.	Labour Party	191	6.2%
6	Rogers, K.	Labour Party	157	5.1%

Electorate 6,096 · Ballots cast 3,060 · Back to ward index

Milford & Hordle · 3-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 15.7% Proportional quota 25.0% Difference +9.3 pts below quota Valid ballots 8,365

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Hawkins, D.	Conservative and Unionist Party	1,418	17.0%	Elected
2	Ward, C.	Conservative and Unionist Party	1,339	16.0%	Elected
3	Reid, A.	Conservative and Unionist Party	1,317	15.7%	Elected
4	Spreadbury, I.	Independent	1,000	12.0%
5	Jagger, E.	Liberal Democrats	936	11.2%
6	Boddington, D.	Green Party	827	9.9%
7	Delemare, S.	Liberal Democrats	705	8.4%
8	Sloan, H.	Labour Party	488	5.8%
9	Nundy, S.	Labour Party	335	4.0%

Electorate 8,928 · Ballots cast 8,365 · Back to ward index

Ballard · single-seat

Marginal winner 40.7% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference +9.3 pts below quota Valid ballots 854

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Tungate, N.	Conservative and Unionist Party	348	40.7%	Elected
2	Wallis-Dowling, H.	Labour Party	167	19.6%
3	Baker, C.	Liberal Democrats	137	16.0%
4	Lambert, N.	Britain First	108	12.6%
5	Hamilton, E.	Green Party	94	11.0%

Electorate 3,122 · Ballots cast 854 · Back to ward index

Fawley, Blackfield, Calshot & Langley · 2-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 24.7% Proportional quota 33.3% Difference +8.7 pts below quota Valid ballots 2,810

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Alvey, A.	Conservative and Unionist Party	747	26.6%	Elected
2	Hartmann, M.	Conservative and Unionist Party	693	24.7%	Elected
3	Pearson, A.	Liberal Democrats	499	17.8%
4	Rose, J.	Liberal Democrats	451	16.0%
5	Gillam, P.	Labour Party	214	7.6%
6	Garside, M.	Labour Party	206	7.3%

Electorate 5,427 · Ballots cast 2,810 · Back to ward index

Ashurst, Bramshaw, Copythorne & Netley Marsh · 2-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 24.8% Proportional quota 33.3% Difference +8.5 pts below quota Valid ballots 3,895

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Tipp, D.	Conservative and Unionist Party	1,027	26.4%	Elected
2	Reilly, J.	Independent	966	24.8%	Elected
3	Binns, J.	Conservative and Unionist Party	740	19.0%
4	Thompson, B.	Liberal Democrats	540	13.9%
5	Frend, M.	Labour Party	350	9.0%
6	Mawby, T.	Labour Party	272	7.0%

Electorate 6,102 · Ballots cast 3,895 · Back to ward index

Hythe Central · 2-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 25.6% Proportional quota 33.3% Difference +7.7 pts below quota Valid ballots 3,783

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Wade, A.	Liberal Democrats	1,112	29.4%	Elected
2	Dowd, P.	Liberal Democrats	970	25.6%	Elected
3	Harrison, C.	Conservative and Unionist Party	741	19.6%
4	Marwood, T.	Conservative and Unionist Party	685	18.1%
5	Caric, I.	Labour Party	147	3.9%
6	Saffin, S.	Labour Party	128	3.4%

Electorate 5,359 · Ballots cast 3,783 · Back to ward index

Ashley, Bashley & Fernhill · 2-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 26.3% Proportional quota 33.3% Difference +7.1 pts below quota Valid ballots 3,700

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Blunden, G.	Conservative and Unionist Party	981	26.5%	Elected
2	Cleary, J.	Conservative and Unionist Party	972	26.3%	Elected
3	Scott-Johns, M.	Liberal Democrats	438	11.8%
4	Morgan, S.	Liberal Democrats	337	9.1%
5	Bellamy, C.	Labour Party	308	8.3%
6	Moxey, P.	Green Party	271	7.3%
7	Roberts, K.	Labour Party	244	6.6%
8	Pemberton, J.	Green Party	149	4.0%

Electorate 6,422 · Ballots cast 3,700 · Back to ward index

Fordingbridge, Godshill & Hyde · 2-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 26.6% Proportional quota 33.3% Difference +6.8 pts below quota Valid ballots 4,086

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Millar, D.	Liberal Democrats	1,118	27.4%	Elected
2	Woods, P.	Liberal Democrats	1,085	26.6%	Elected
3	Sevier, A.	Conservative and Unionist Party	725	17.7%
4	Heron, R.	Conservative and Unionist Party	673	16.5%
5	Cameron, L.	Labour Party	270	6.6%
6	Bessey, J.	Labour Party	215	5.3%

Electorate 6,120 · Ballots cast 4,086 · Back to ward index

Milton · 2-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 26.8% Proportional quota 33.3% Difference +6.5 pts below quota Valid ballots 3,022

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Davies, S.	Conservative and Unionist Party	822	27.2%	Elected
2	Clarke, S.	Conservative and Unionist Party	810	26.8%	Elected
3	Davies, W.	Liberal Democrats	598	19.8%
4	Drayton, J.	Liberal Democrats	497	16.4%
5	Ashman, M.	Labour Party	295	9.8%

Electorate 5,624 · Ballots cast 3,022 · Back to ward index

Dibden & Dibden Purlieu · 2-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 27.6% Proportional quota 33.3% Difference +5.7 pts below quota Valid ballots 3,167

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Wade, M.	Liberal Democrats	1,025	32.4%	Elected
2	Osborne, S.	Liberal Democrats	874	27.6%	Elected
3	Heron, E.	Conservative and Unionist Party	506	16.0%
4	Twydell, D.	Conservative and Unionist Party	455	14.4%
5	Smith, L.	Labour Party	170	5.4%
6	Wilkinson, B.	Labour Party	137	4.3%

Electorate 5,266 · Ballots cast 3,167 · Back to ward index

Hythe South · 2-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 28.1% Proportional quota 33.3% Difference +5.3 pts below quota Valid ballots 2,507

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Clark, M.	Liberal Democrats	736	29.4%	Elected
2	Cullen, S.	Liberal Democrats	704	28.1%	Elected
3	Davey, E.	Conservative and Unionist Party	364	14.5%
4	Spearing, B.	Conservative and Unionist Party	346	13.8%
5	Davison, C.	Labour Party	186	7.4%
6	Herbert, K.	Labour Party	171	6.8%

Electorate 5,426 · Ballots cast 2,507 · Back to ward index

Barton & Becton · 2-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner 28.1% Proportional quota 33.3% Difference +5.2 pts below quota Valid ballots 3,870

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Craze, K.	Conservative and Unionist Party	1,147	29.6%	Elected
2	O'Sullivan, A.	Conservative and Unionist Party	1,087	28.1%	Elected
3	Preis, R.	Liberal Democrats	489	12.6%
4	Lewis, S.	Liberal Democrats	421	10.9%
5	Bourdillon, K.	Green Party	310	8.0%
6	Macaskill, D.	Green Party	216	5.6%
7	Terry, P.	Labour Party	200	5.2%

Electorate 5,965 · Ballots cast 3,870 · Back to ward index

Lyndhurst & Minstead · single-seat

Marginal winner 48.8% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference +1.2 pts below quota Valid ballots 1,182

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Brand, H.	Liberal Democrats	577	48.8%	Elected
2	Stratford, B.	Conservative and Unionist Party	475	40.2%
3	Willsher, C.	Labour Party	130	11.0%

Electorate 3,004 · Ballots cast 1,182 · Back to ward index

Downlands & Forest North · single-seat

Marginal winner 49.0% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference +1.0 pts below quota Valid ballots 1,148

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Richards, J.	Green Party	562	49.0%	Elected
2	Bellows, A.	Conservative and Unionist Party	496	43.2%
3	Phillips, M.	Labour Party	90	7.8%

Electorate 2,814 · Ballots cast 1,148 · Back to ward index

Forest & Solent · single-seat

Marginal winner 50.4% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −0.4 pts Valid ballots 1,100

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Poole, D.	Conservative and Unionist Party	554	50.4%	Elected
2	Gallagher, J.	Green Party	380	34.5%
3	Slattery, V.	Labour Party	166	15.1%

Electorate 2,987 · Ballots cast 1,100 · Back to ward index

Brockenhurst & Denny Lodge · single-seat

Marginal winner 50.9% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −0.9 pts Valid ballots 1,317

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Parker, A.	Green Party	671	50.9%	Elected
2	Harris, M.	Conservative and Unionist Party	528	40.1%
3	Horne, J.	Labour Party	118	9.0%

Electorate 3,027 · Ballots cast 1,317 · Back to ward index

Sway · single-seat

Marginal winner 55.3% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −5.3 pts Valid ballots 1,332

Rank	Candidate	Party	Votes	Share	Elected
1	Rickman, B.	Conservative and Unionist Party	737	55.3%	Elected
2	King, S.	Green Party	487	36.6%
3	Dance, P.	Labour Party	108	8.1%

Electorate 2,883 · Ballots cast 1,332 · Back to ward index