← North Warwickshire (all cycles) · 1 May 2025 cohort
North Warwickshire 2025
Local elections held 1 May 2025.
How to read this page
Each race below shows the share of valid ballots the marginal elected candidate actually won, and compares it to the proportional quota: the share that would be needed to be guaranteed that seat under any proportional voting method (1 seats + 1). For a 1-seat ward the quota is 50%; for 2 seats, 33.3%; for 3 seats, 25%.
Where the actual winning share fell below the quota, we show the gap as points under par — the editorial indictment. Above-par results are just majority mandates and pass without comment. The voting method is the subject of every observation here. Named candidates appear as the public election record requires; the cause being audited is the voting method, not the individuals. See the methodology page for derivations.
If votes were counted by party
Across the 7 wards in this cycle, parties received the vote totals below. The proportional column shows what each party would have won if the 7 seats had been allocated to those vote totals in proportion (how, with caveats). The Δ column is the actual seat count minus the proportional seat count — positive numbers are parties First-Past-the-Post over-represented in this council, negative are parties it under-represented.
| Party | Votes | Vote % | Seats won | % of seats | Proportional seats | Proportional % | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reform UK | 7,791 | 46.6% | 7 | 100.0% | 4 | 57.1% | +3 |
| Conservative and Unionist Party | 4,381 | 26.2% | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 28.6% | -2 |
| Labour Party | 2,700 | 16.2% | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 14.3% | -1 |
| Independent | 967 | 5.8% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Liberal Democrats | 529 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Green Party | 279 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Heritage Party | 55 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Total | 16,702 | 100.0% | 7 | 100.0% | 7 | 100.0% | 0 |
Vote share vs seats won
The top bar is each party's share of votes cast in this council. Below, one square per seat, coloured by the party that won it — first the actual First-Past-the-Post result, then what a proportional method would have produced from the same vote totals. Divergence between the bar and the actual grid is the indictment of the method.
Wards in this council
Sorted with the largest gap below the quota first. Click any ward to jump to its full result.
- Coleshill North & Water Orton · 1 seat · won at 40.0% · +10.0 pts below quota
- Atherstone · 1 seat · won at 43.5% · +6.5 pts below quota
- Polesworth · 1 seat · won at 47.2% · +2.8 pts below quota
- Kingsbury · 1 seat · won at 47.9% · +2.1 pts below quota
- Hartshill & Mancetter · 1 seat · won at 50.1% · above quota
- Coleshill South & Arley · 1 seat · won at 51.3% · above quota
- Baddesley & Dordon · 1 seat · won at 100.3% · above quota
Race results
Coleshill North & Water Orton · single-seat
Marginal winner 40.0% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference +10.0 pts below quota Valid ballots 2,115
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Neale Aitkenhead | Reform UK | 845 | 40.0% | Elected |
| 2 | Steven Guy Stuart | Independent | 733 | 34.7% | |
| 3 | Martin Lee Watson | Conservative and Unionist Party | 298 | 14.1% | |
| 4 | Olwen Jane Brown | Labour Party | 150 | 7.1% | |
| 5 | Peggy Wiseman | Green Party | 39 | 1.8% | |
| 6 | Karyl Arlene Rees | Liberal Democrats | 28 | 1.3% | |
| 7 | Paul Hopkins | Independent | 22 | 1.0% |
Atherstone · single-seat
Marginal winner 43.5% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference +6.5 pts below quota Valid ballots 2,197
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Gisbourne | Reform UK | 956 | 43.5% | Elected |
| 2 | Mejar Singh | Conservative and Unionist Party | 683 | 31.1% | |
| 3 | Dawn Wilkinson | Labour Party | 434 | 19.8% | |
| 4 | Joshua Wickham-Young | Green Party | 86 | 3.9% | |
| 5 | Rambir Singh Khatkar | Liberal Democrats | 38 | 1.7% |
Polesworth · single-seat
Marginal winner 47.2% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference +2.8 pts below quota Valid ballots 2,441
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen Shaw | Reform UK | 1,151 | 47.2% | Elected |
| 2 | Marian Humphreys | Conservative and Unionist Party | 583 | 23.9% | |
| 3 | Neil Henry Chapman | Labour Party | 400 | 16.4% | |
| 4 | Michael Edward Osborne | Independent | 212 | 8.7% | |
| 5 | Roger Neal Harding | Liberal Democrats | 95 | 3.9% |
Kingsbury · single-seat
Marginal winner 47.9% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference +2.1 pts below quota Valid ballots 2,451
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stuart James Green | Reform UK | 1,174 | 47.9% | Elected |
| 2 | Andy Jenns | Conservative and Unionist Party | 917 | 37.4% | |
| 3 | Hayden Albert Phillips | Labour Party | 252 | 10.3% | |
| 4 | Elizabeth Joan Phyllis Coles | Liberal Democrats | 108 | 4.4% |
Hartshill & Mancetter · single-seat
Marginal winner 50.1% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −0.1 pts Valid ballots 2,415
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jennifer Warren | Reform UK | 1,210 | 50.1% | Elected |
| 2 | Katie Hobley | Labour Party | 577 | 23.9% | |
| 3 | Richard Baxter-Payne | Conservative and Unionist Party | 469 | 19.4% | |
| 4 | Iain Bernard Duck | Liberal Democrats | 104 | 4.3% | |
| 5 | Peter Downes | Heritage Party | 55 | 2.3% |
Coleshill South & Arley · single-seat
Marginal winner 51.3% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −1.3 pts Valid ballots 2,463
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott David Cameron | Reform UK | 1,263 | 51.3% | Elected |
| 2 | Dave Humphreys | Conservative and Unionist Party | 635 | 25.8% | |
| 3 | Antony Haydn Short | Labour Party | 338 | 13.7% | |
| 4 | Margaret Hughes | Green Party | 154 | 6.3% | |
| 5 | Thom Holmes | Liberal Democrats | 73 | 3.0% |
Baddesley & Dordon · single-seat
Marginal winner 100.3% Proportional quota 50.0% Difference −50.3 pts Valid ballots 1,189
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edward Harris | Reform UK | 1,192 | 100.3% | Elected |
| 2 | Andy Wright | Conservative and Unionist Party | 796 | 66.9% | |
| 3 | Owen George Phillips | Labour Party | 549 | 46.2% | |
| 4 | Richard Steven Vos | Liberal Democrats | 83 | 7.0% |