← Rushmoor (all cycles) · 3 May 2018 cohort
Rushmoor 2018
Local elections held 3 May 2018.
How to read this page
Each race below shows the share of valid ballots the marginal elected candidate actually won, and compares it to the proportional quota: the share they'd need to clinch the seat under any proportional voting method (1 seats + 1). For a 1-seat ward the quota is 50%; for 2 seats, 33.3%; for 3 seats, 25%.
Where the actual winning share fell below the quota, we show the signed gap as points below quota (a negative number) — the editorial indictment. Above-quota results clear the bar and pass without comment. The voting method is the subject of every observation here. Named candidates appear as the public election record requires; the cause being audited is the voting method, not the individuals. See the methodology page for derivations.
If votes were counted by party
Across the 13 wards in this cycle, parties received the vote totals below. The proportional column shows what each party would have won if the 14 seats had been shared out in proportion to votes received (how, with caveats). The Δ column is the actual seat count minus the proportional seat count — positive numbers are parties First-Past-the-Post over-represented; negative are parties it under-represented.
| Party | Votes | Vote % | Seats won | % of seats | Proportional seats | Proportional % | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative Party | 10,276 | 47.3% | 9 | 64.3% | 7 | 50.0% | +2 |
| Labour Party | 7,668 | 35.3% | 4 | 28.6% | 5 | 35.7% | -1 |
| Liberal Democrats | 2,817 | 13.0% | 1 | 7.1% | 2 | 14.3% | -1 |
| UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 606 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Green Party | 306 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| BUSP | 57 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Total | 21,730 | 100.0% | 14 | 100.0% | 14 | 100.0% | 0 |
Vote share vs seats won
The top bar is each party's share of votes cast in this council. Below, one square per seat, coloured by the party that won it — first the actual First-Past-the-Post result, then what a proportional method would have produced from the same vote totals. Divergence between the bar and the actual grid is the indictment of the method.
Council composition: what this election replaced
Two opencouncildata snapshots: the council immediately after the 2018 election (current) and immediately before it (2017). Only ~⅓ of seats were contested in 2018 — most of the bench is unchanged, and the cycle's effect on the overall composition is what shifts.
Wards in this council
Sorted with the largest gap below the quota first. Click any ward to jump to its full result.
- St Mark's · 1 seat · won at 39.0% · −11.0 pts below quota
- Rowhill · 1 seat · won at 46.2% · −3.8 pts below quota
- Empress · 1 seat · won at 49.6% · −0.4 pts below quota
- Manor Park · 1 seat · won at 50.4% · above quota
- Wellington · 1 seat · won at 52.4% · above quota
- Cove and Southwood · 1 seat · won at 55.7% · above quota
- Cherrywood · 1 seat · won at 56.5% · above quota
- West Heath · 2 seats · won at 40.9% · above quota
- Knellwood · 1 seat · won at 58.8% · above quota
- Aldershot Park · 1 seat · won at 60.2% · above quota
- St John's · 1 seat · won at 64.5% · above quota
- Fernhill · 1 seat · won at 68.4% · above quota
- North Town · 1 seat · won at 68.7% · above quota
Race results
St Mark's · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 39.0% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −11.0 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,479
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abul Koher Chowdhury | Liberal Democrats | 577 | 39.0% | −11.0 pts | Elected |
| 2 | David Gladstone | Conservative Party | 544 | 36.8% | — | |
| 3 | Carl Hewitt | Labour Party | 301 | 20.4% | — | |
| 4 | Zack Culshaw | BUSP | 57 | 3.9% | — |
Rowhill · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 46.2% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −3.8 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,793
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabaah Choudhary | Conservative Party | 829 | 46.2% | −3.8 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Yvette Dean-Bunting | Labour Party | 583 | 32.5% | — | |
| 3 | Richard Hilliar | Liberal Democrats | 381 | 21.2% | — |
Empress · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 49.6% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −0.4 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,580
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Smith | Conservative Party | 784 | 49.6% | −0.4 pts | Elected |
| 2 | William O'Donovan | Labour Party | 460 | 29.1% | — | |
| 3 | Donna Wallace | Green Party | 209 | 13.2% | — | |
| 4 | Leola Card | Liberal Democrats | 127 | 8.0% | — |
Manor Park · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 50.4% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +0.4 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,937
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bruce Thomas | Conservative Party | 977 | 50.4% | +0.4 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Gaynor Austin | Labour Party | 960 | 49.6% | — |
Wellington · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 52.4% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +2.4 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 743
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nadia Martin | Labour Party | 389 | 52.4% | +2.4 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Attika Choudhary | Conservative Party | 290 | 39.0% | — | |
| 3 | Sophie Oglesson | Liberal Democrats | 64 | 8.6% | — |
Cove and Southwood · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 55.7% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +5.7 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,718
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martin Tennant | Conservative Party | 957 | 55.7% | +5.7 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Madi Jabbi | Labour Party | 379 | 22.1% | — | |
| 3 | Alain Dekker | Liberal Democrats | 240 | 14.0% | — | |
| 4 | Jennifer Parsons | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 142 | 8.3% | — |
Cherrywood · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 56.5% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +6.5 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,472
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ashley Halstead | Labour Party | 831 | 56.5% | +6.5 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Peter Cullum | Conservative Party | 515 | 35.0% | — | |
| 3 | Shaun Murphy | Liberal Democrats | 126 | 8.6% | — |
West Heath · 2-seat (bloc vote)
Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~2× smaller. 40.9% Proportional quota 33.3% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +7.5 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 2 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,742
This is a 2-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~2×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 2, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 2. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rod Cooper | Conservative Party | 749 | 21.5% | 43.0% | +9.7 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Veronica Graham-Green | Conservative Party | 712 | 20.4% | 40.9% | +7.5 pts | Elected |
| 3 | Christopher Harding | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 464 | 13.3% | 26.6% | — | |
| 4 | Jeremy Clapham | Labour Party | 442 | 12.7% | 25.4% | — | |
| 5 | June Smith | Labour Party | 399 | 11.5% | 22.9% | — | |
| 6 | Craig Card | Liberal Democrats | 370 | 10.6% | 21.2% | — | |
| 7 | Charles Fraser-Fleming | Liberal Democrats | 348 | 10.0% | 20.0% | — |
Knellwood · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 58.8% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +8.8 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,965
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mara Makunura | Conservative Party | 1,156 | 58.8% | +8.8 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Colin Southon | Labour Party | 405 | 20.6% | — | |
| 3 | Nicholas March | Liberal Democrats | 404 | 20.6% | — |
Aldershot Park · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 60.2% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +10.2 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,226
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terence Bridgeman | Labour Party | 738 | 60.2% | +10.2 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Leonard Winchcombe | Conservative Party | 488 | 39.8% | — |
St John's · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 64.5% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +14.5 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,362
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacqueline Vosper | Conservative Party | 878 | 64.5% | +14.5 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Janet Gardner | Labour Party | 304 | 22.3% | — | |
| 3 | Jill Whyman | Liberal Democrats | 180 | 13.2% | — |
Fernhill · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 68.4% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +18.4 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,518
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kenneth Muschamp | Conservative Party | 1,039 | 68.4% | +18.4 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Mitchell Wescott | Labour Party | 479 | 31.6% | — |
North Town · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 68.7% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +18.7 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,453
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peter Rust | Labour Party | 998 | 68.7% | +18.7 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Akmal Gani | Conservative Party | 358 | 24.6% | — | |
| 3 | Jason Guy | Green Party | 97 | 6.7% | — |