← Adur (all cycles) · 5 May 2016 cohort

Adur 2016

Local elections held 5 May 2016.

14 ward races
15 seats
9 elected below the proportional quota
60.0% of seats below quota

How to read this page

Each race below shows the share of valid ballots the marginal elected candidate actually won, and compares it to the proportional quota: the share they'd need to clinch the seat under any proportional voting method (1 seats + 1). For a 1-seat ward the quota is 50%; for 2 seats, 33.3%; for 3 seats, 25%.

Where the actual winning share fell below the quota, we show the signed gap as points below quota (a negative number) — the editorial indictment. Above-quota results clear the bar and pass without comment. The voting method is the subject of every observation here. Named candidates appear as the public election record requires; the cause being audited is the voting method, not the individuals. See the methodology page for derivations.

If votes were counted by party

Across the 14 wards in this cycle, parties received the vote totals below. The proportional column shows what each party would have won if the 15 seats had been shared out in proportion to votes received (how, with caveats). The Δ column is the actual seat count minus the proportional seat count — positive numbers are parties First-Past-the-Post over-represented; negative are parties it under-represented.

PartyVotesVote %Seats won% of seatsProportional seatsProportional %Δ
Conservative Party6,14035.6%746.7%533.3%+2
Labour Party4,27824.8%320.0%426.7%-1
UK Independence Party (UKIP)4,17924.2%426.7%426.7%0
Liberal Democrats1,1496.7%00.0%16.7%-1
Independent1,0366.0%16.7%16.7%0
Green Party4892.8%00.0%00.0%0
Total17,271100.0%15100.0%15100.0%0

Vote share vs seats won

The top bar is each party's share of votes cast in this council. Below, one square per seat, coloured by the party that won it — first the actual First-Past-the-Post result, then what a proportional method would have produced from the same vote totals. Divergence between the bar and the actual grid is the indictment of the method.

Vote share
Actual seats
Proportional seats

Council composition: what this election replaced

Two opencouncildata snapshots: the council immediately after the 2016 election (current) and immediately before it (2015). Only ~⅓ of seats were contested in 2016 — most of the bench is unchanged, and the cycle's effect on the overall composition is what shifts.

Current (2016)

Wards in this council

Sorted with the largest gap below the quota first. Click any ward to jump to its full result.

Race results

Southlands · single-seat

Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 31.2% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −18.8 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 966

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Paul GraysmarkUK Independence Party (UKIP)30131.2%−18.8 ptsElected
2Anthony NicklenConservative Party28929.9%
3Kieran FrancisLabour Party28129.1%
4Andrew TinsleyLiberal Democrats959.8%

EC ward code E05007573 · Back to ward index

Cokeham · single-seat

Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 33.6% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −16.4 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,120

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Barry MearLabour Party37633.6%−16.4 ptsElected
2Mick ClarkUK Independence Party (UKIP)35832.0%
3Paul MansfieldConservative Party32829.3%
4Narsing DoorareeLiberal Democrats585.2%

EC ward code E05007564 · Back to ward index

St Mary's · single-seat

Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 33.6% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −16.4 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,194

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Sami ZeglamLabour Party40133.6%−16.4 ptsElected
2Cindy GoldsConservative Party37431.3%
3Sean RidleyUK Independence Party (UKIP)17614.7%
4Paul HendyGreen Party15412.9%
5Neville MerrettLiberal Democrats897.5%

EC ward code E05007571 · Back to ward index

Churchill · single-seat

Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 34.3% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −15.7 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,145

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Robin MonkUK Independence Party (UKIP)39334.3%−15.7 ptsElected
2Pat BeresfordConservative Party36231.6%
3Daniel BallanceLabour Party26723.3%
4Steve CreedLiberal Democrats12310.7%

EC ward code E05007563 · Back to ward index

Manor · single-seat

Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 37.8% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −12.2 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,220

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Carson AlburyConservative Party46137.8%−12.2 ptsElected
2Jason LockUK Independence Party (UKIP)31625.9%
3John BallanceLabour Party19816.2%
4Keith DollemoreIndependent16813.8%
5Steve MartinLiberal Democrats776.3%

EC ward code E05007567 · Back to ward index

Eastbrook · single-seat

Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 40.0% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −10.0 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,072

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Leslie AldenLabour Party42940.0%−10.0 ptsElected
2David DonaldsonConservative Party40537.8%
3Frances HearneUK Independence Party (UKIP)18917.6%
4Patrick GinnellyGreen Party494.6%

EC ward code E05007565 · Back to ward index

Mash Barn · single-seat

Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 42.3% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −7.7 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 940

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Elizabeth HaywoodUK Independence Party (UKIP)39842.3%−7.7 ptsElected
2Neil MaguinnessConservative Party21222.6%
3Douglas BradleyLabour Party18419.6%
4Doris MartinLiberal Democrats14615.5%

EC ward code E05007569 · Back to ward index

Peverel · single-seat

Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 45.7% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −4.3 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,074

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1George BartonConservative Party49145.7%−4.3 ptsElected
2Raymond McLeodUK Independence Party (UKIP)32230.0%
3Alun JonesLabour Party19418.1%
4Yasoda DoorareeLiberal Democrats676.2%

EC ward code E05007570 · Back to ward index

St Nicolas · single-seat

Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 48.4% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −1.6 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,219

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Brian CoomberConservative Party59048.4%−1.6 ptsElected
2Irene ReedLabour Party29224.0%
3Jean TurnerUK Independence Party (UKIP)1169.5%
4Louise MillerGreen Party1139.3%
5Janet KimberLiberal Democrats1088.9%

EC ward code E05007572 · Back to ward index

Southwick Green · single-seat

Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 50.2% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +0.2 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,056

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Peter MetcalfeConservative Party53050.2%+0.2 ptsElected
2David BowenLabour Party25223.9%
3William JarmanUK Independence Party (UKIP)14213.4%
4David EdeyLiberal Democrats676.3%
5Annie BrownGreen Party656.2%

EC ward code E05007574 · Back to ward index

Widewater · 2-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~2× smaller. 34.4% Proportional quota 33.3% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +1.0 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 2 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,473

This is a 2-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~2×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 2, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 2. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Ann BridgesConservative Party61620.9%41.8%+8.5 ptsElected
2Clive BurghardUK Independence Party (UKIP)50617.2%34.4%+1.0 ptsElected
3Gloria EveleighUK Independence Party (UKIP)49216.7%33.4%
4Nicholas PigottConservative Party41114.0%27.9%
5Lee CowenLabour Party39913.5%27.1%
6Jacqueline PilkingtonLabour Party36612.4%24.8%
7Andrew SerhanLiberal Democrats1565.3%10.6%

EC ward code E05007575 · Back to ward index

Hillside · single-seat

Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 51.6% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +1.6 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,067

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Angus DunnConservative Party55151.6%+1.6 ptsElected
2Stephjen GilbertLabour Party25323.7%
3Jennifer GreigUK Independence Party (UKIP)18617.4%
4Helen MearsGreen Party403.7%
5Keith HumphreyLiberal Democrats373.5%

EC ward code E05007566 · Back to ward index

Buckingham · single-seat

Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 52.8% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +2.8 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 985

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Kevin BoramConservative Party52052.8%+2.8 ptsElected
2Michael ThorntonLabour Party19519.8%
3Darren ComptonUK Independence Party (UKIP)13313.5%
4Cyril CanningsLiberal Democrats697.0%
5Leslie Groves WilliamsGreen Party686.9%

EC ward code E05007562 · Back to ward index

Marine · single-seat

Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 68.5% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +18.5 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,267

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Jocelyn LoaderIndependent86868.5%+18.5 ptsElected
2Adrienne LoweLabour Party19115.1%
3Peter HarveyUK Independence Party (UKIP)15111.9%
4Thomas HilditchLiberal Democrats574.5%

EC ward code E05007568 · Back to ward index