← Epping Forest (all cycles) · 5 May 2016 cohort
Epping Forest 2016
Local elections held 5 May 2016.
How to read this page
Each race below shows the share of valid ballots the marginal elected candidate actually won, and compares it to the proportional quota: the share they'd need to clinch the seat under any proportional voting method (1 seats + 1). For a 1-seat ward the quota is 50%; for 2 seats, 33.3%; for 3 seats, 25%.
Where the actual winning share fell below the quota, we show the signed gap as points below quota (a negative number) — the editorial indictment. Above-quota results clear the bar and pass without comment. The voting method is the subject of every observation here. Named candidates appear as the public election record requires; the cause being audited is the voting method, not the individuals. See the methodology page for derivations.
If votes were counted by party
Across the 20 wards in this cycle, parties received the vote totals below. The proportional column shows what each party would have won if the 21 seats had been shared out in proportion to votes received (how, with caveats). The Δ column is the actual seat count minus the proportional seat count — positive numbers are parties First-Past-the-Post over-represented; negative are parties it under-represented.
| Party | Votes | Vote % | Seats won | % of seats | Proportional seats | Proportional % | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative Party | 10,218 | 44.3% | 11 | 52.4% | 10 | 47.6% | +1 |
| Loughton | 6,118 | 26.5% | 8 | 38.1% | 6 | 28.6% | +2 |
| Liberal Democrats | 2,427 | 10.5% | 1 | 4.8% | 2 | 9.5% | -1 |
| Green Party | 2,148 | 9.3% | 1 | 4.8% | 2 | 9.5% | -1 |
| UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 1,093 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 4.8% | -1 |
| Labour Party | 984 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| YPP | 46 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| EDP | 34 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Total | 23,068 | 100.0% | 21 | 100.0% | 21 | 100.0% | 0 |
Vote share vs seats won
The top bar is each party's share of votes cast in this council. Below, one square per seat, coloured by the party that won it — first the actual First-Past-the-Post result, then what a proportional method would have produced from the same vote totals. Divergence between the bar and the actual grid is the indictment of the method.
Council composition: what this election replaced
Two opencouncildata snapshots: the council immediately after the 2016 election (current) and immediately before it (2015). Only ~⅓ of seats were contested in 2016 — most of the bench is unchanged, and the cycle's effect on the overall composition is what shifts.
Wards in this council
Sorted with the largest gap below the quota first. Click any ward to jump to its full result.
- Waltham Abbey South West · 1 seat · won at 41.6% · −8.4 pts below quota
- Buckhurst Hill East · 1 seat · won at 45.2% · −4.8 pts below quota
- Epping Lindsey and Thornwood Common · 1 seat · won at 54.9% · above quota
- Epping Hemnall · 1 seat · won at 56.8% · above quota
- Waltham Abbey Honey Lane · 1 seat · won at 57.6% · above quota
- Waltham Abbey North East · 1 seat · won at 57.6% · above quota
- Buckhurst Hill West · 1 seat · won at 58.7% · above quota
- Chigwell Row · 1 seat · won at 62.9% · above quota
- Loughton Alderton · 1 seat · won at 63.8% · above quota
- Grange Hill · 1 seat · won at 65.1% · above quota
- Loughton Broadway · 1 seat · won at 68.7% · above quota
- Loughton St Mary's · 1 seat · won at 69.0% · above quota
- Loughton Forest · 2 seats · won at 54.1% · above quota
- High Ongar, Willingale and the Rodings · 1 seat · won at 71.5% · above quota
- Chigwell Village · 1 seat · won at 75.1% · above quota
- Moreton and Fyfield · 1 seat · won at 75.4% · above quota
- Theydon Bois · 1 seat · won at 76.6% · above quota
- Loughton St John's · 1 seat · won at 81.8% · above quota
- Loughton Roding · 1 seat · won at 84.1% · above quota
- Loughton Fairmead · 1 seat · won at 84.9% · above quota
Race results
Waltham Abbey South West · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 41.6% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −8.4 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 743
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Helen Kane | Conservative Party | 309 | 41.6% | −8.4 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Ron McEvoy | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 259 | 34.9% | — | |
| 3 | Dave Plummer | Green Party | 175 | 23.6% | — |
Buckhurst Hill East · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 45.2% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −4.8 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,450
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simon Heap | Green Party | 656 | 45.2% | −4.8 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Neville Wright | Conservative Party | 593 | 40.9% | — | |
| 3 | Simon Hearn | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 201 | 13.9% | — |
Epping Lindsey and Thornwood Common · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 54.9% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +4.9 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,688
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Holly Whitbread | Conservative Party | 927 | 54.9% | +4.9 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Cherry McCredie | Liberal Democrats | 388 | 23.0% | — | |
| 3 | Simon Bullough | Labour Party | 252 | 14.9% | — | |
| 4 | Rhys Martin | Green Party | 121 | 7.2% | — |
Epping Hemnall · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 56.8% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +6.8 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,805
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jon Whitehouse | Liberal Democrats | 1,026 | 56.8% | +6.8 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Daniel Spillman | Conservative Party | 619 | 34.3% | — | |
| 3 | Inez Collier | Labour Party | 160 | 8.9% | — |
Waltham Abbey Honey Lane · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 57.6% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +7.6 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,054
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glynis Shiell | Conservative Party | 607 | 57.6% | +7.6 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Mitch Diamond-Conway | Labour Party | 303 | 28.7% | — | |
| 3 | Linda Johnson-Laird | Green Party | 144 | 13.7% | — |
Waltham Abbey North East · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 57.6% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +7.6 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 885
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeane Lea | Conservative Party | 510 | 57.6% | +7.6 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Barbara Robertson | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 229 | 25.9% | — | |
| 3 | Timothy Vaughan | Liberal Democrats | 79 | 8.9% | — | |
| 4 | Elliot Seymour | Green Party | 67 | 7.6% | — |
Buckhurst Hill West · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 58.7% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +8.7 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,760
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gavin Chambers | Conservative Party | 1,033 | 58.7% | +8.7 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Elanor Furlong | Green Party | 348 | 19.8% | — | |
| 3 | Joseph Barkham | Liberal Democrats | 333 | 18.9% | — | |
| 4 | Gerard Wadsworth | YPP | 46 | 2.6% | — |
Chigwell Row · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 62.9% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +12.9 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 591
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Sandler | Conservative Party | 372 | 62.9% | +12.9 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Joanne Alexander-Sefre | Liberal Democrats | 176 | 29.8% | — | |
| 3 | Rupert Nelson | Green Party | 43 | 7.3% | — |
Loughton Alderton · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 63.8% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +13.8 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 868
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Debra Roberts | Loughton | 554 | 63.8% | +13.8 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Jonathan Hunter | Conservative Party | 168 | 19.4% | — | |
| 3 | Angela Ayre | Labour Party | 146 | 16.8% | — |
Grange Hill · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 65.1% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +15.1 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,346
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alan Lion | Conservative Party | 876 | 65.1% | +15.1 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Alison Garnham | Green Party | 470 | 34.9% | — |
Loughton Broadway · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 68.7% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +18.7 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 835
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leon Girling | Loughton | 574 | 68.7% | +18.7 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Barry Johns | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 186 | 22.3% | — | |
| 3 | Darshan Sunger | Conservative Party | 75 | 9.0% | — |
Loughton St Mary's · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 69.0% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +19.0 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,305
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Judy Jennings | Loughton | 901 | 69.0% | +19.0 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Jaswinder Phull | Conservative Party | 327 | 25.1% | — | |
| 3 | James Ridgwell | Liberal Democrats | 77 | 5.9% | — |
Loughton Forest · 2-seat (bloc vote)
Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~2× smaller. 54.1% Proportional quota 33.3% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +20.8 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 2 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,217
This is a 2-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~2×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 2, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 2. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amy Beales | Loughton | 696 | 28.6% | 57.2% | +23.9 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Roger Baldwin | Loughton | 659 | 27.1% | 54.1% | +20.8 pts | Elected |
| 3 | Stephen Porcas | Conservative Party | 512 | 21.0% | 42.1% | — | |
| 4 | Chris Criscione | Conservative Party | 473 | 19.4% | 38.9% | — | |
| 5 | Paul Rissbrook | Liberal Democrats | 94 | 3.9% | 7.7% | — |
High Ongar, Willingale and the Rodings · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 71.5% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +21.5 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 452
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maggie McEwen | Conservative Party | 323 | 71.5% | +21.5 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Llyris Stebbings | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 95 | 21.0% | — | |
| 3 | Robin Tilbrook | EDP | 34 | 7.5% | — |
Chigwell Village · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 75.1% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +25.1 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 990
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | John Knapman | Conservative Party | 743 | 75.1% | +25.1 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Christopher Lord | Green Party | 124 | 12.5% | — | |
| 3 | Isuru Perera | Labour Party | 123 | 12.4% | — |
Moreton and Fyfield · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 75.4% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +25.4 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 501
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tony Boyce | Conservative Party | 378 | 75.4% | +25.4 pts | Elected |
| 2 | David Mills | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 123 | 24.6% | — |
Theydon Bois · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 76.6% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +26.6 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,085
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | John Philip | Conservative Party | 831 | 76.6% | +26.6 pts | Elected |
| 2 | George Lund | Liberal Democrats | 254 | 23.4% | — |
Loughton St John's · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 81.8% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +31.8 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,200
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caroline Pond | Loughton | 982 | 81.8% | +31.8 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Bob Church | Conservative Party | 218 | 18.2% | — |
Loughton Roding · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 84.1% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +34.1 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,264
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rose Brookes | Loughton | 1,063 | 84.1% | +34.1 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Sam Clark | Conservative Party | 201 | 15.9% | — |
Loughton Fairmead · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 84.9% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +34.9 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 812
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Wisley | Loughton | 689 | 84.9% | +34.9 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Ryan Sparrowhawk | Conservative Party | 123 | 15.1% | — |