← Epping Forest (all cycles) · 5 May 2016 cohort

Epping Forest 2016

Local elections held 5 May 2016.

20 ward races
21 seats
2 elected below the proportional quota
9.5% of seats below quota

How to read this page

Each race below shows the share of valid ballots the marginal elected candidate actually won, and compares it to the proportional quota: the share they'd need to clinch the seat under any proportional voting method (1 seats + 1). For a 1-seat ward the quota is 50%; for 2 seats, 33.3%; for 3 seats, 25%.

Where the actual winning share fell below the quota, we show the signed gap as points below quota (a negative number) — the editorial indictment. Above-quota results clear the bar and pass without comment. The voting method is the subject of every observation here. Named candidates appear as the public election record requires; the cause being audited is the voting method, not the individuals. See the methodology page for derivations.

If votes were counted by party

Across the 20 wards in this cycle, parties received the vote totals below. The proportional column shows what each party would have won if the 21 seats had been shared out in proportion to votes received (how, with caveats). The Δ column is the actual seat count minus the proportional seat count — positive numbers are parties First-Past-the-Post over-represented; negative are parties it under-represented.

PartyVotesVote %Seats won% of seatsProportional seatsProportional %Δ
Conservative Party10,21844.3%1152.4%1047.6%+1
Loughton6,11826.5%838.1%628.6%+2
Liberal Democrats2,42710.5%14.8%29.5%-1
Green Party2,1489.3%14.8%29.5%-1
UK Independence Party (UKIP)1,0934.7%00.0%14.8%-1
Labour Party9844.3%00.0%00.0%0
YPP460.2%00.0%00.0%0
EDP340.1%00.0%00.0%0
Total23,068100.0%21100.0%21100.0%0

Vote share vs seats won

The top bar is each party's share of votes cast in this council. Below, one square per seat, coloured by the party that won it — first the actual First-Past-the-Post result, then what a proportional method would have produced from the same vote totals. Divergence between the bar and the actual grid is the indictment of the method.

Vote share
Actual seats
Proportional seats

Council composition: what this election replaced

Two opencouncildata snapshots: the council immediately after the 2016 election (current) and immediately before it (2015). Only ~⅓ of seats were contested in 2016 — most of the bench is unchanged, and the cycle's effect on the overall composition is what shifts.

Current (2016)

Wards in this council

Sorted with the largest gap below the quota first. Click any ward to jump to its full result.

Race results

Waltham Abbey South West · single-seat

Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 41.6% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −8.4 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 743

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Helen KaneConservative Party30941.6%−8.4 ptsElected
2Ron McEvoyUK Independence Party (UKIP)25934.9%
3Dave PlummerGreen Party17523.6%

EC ward code E05004178 · Back to ward index

Buckhurst Hill East · single-seat

Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 45.2% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −4.8 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,450

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Simon HeapGreen Party65645.2%−4.8 ptsElected
2Neville WrightConservative Party59340.9%
3Simon HearnUK Independence Party (UKIP)20113.9%

EC ward code E05004148 · Back to ward index

Epping Lindsey and Thornwood Common · single-seat

Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 54.9% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +4.9 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,688

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Holly WhitbreadConservative Party92754.9%+4.9 ptsElected
2Cherry McCredieLiberal Democrats38823.0%
3Simon BulloughLabour Party25214.9%
4Rhys MartinGreen Party1217.2%

EC ward code E05004154 · Back to ward index

Epping Hemnall · single-seat

Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 56.8% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +6.8 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,805

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Jon WhitehouseLiberal Democrats1,02656.8%+6.8 ptsElected
2Daniel SpillmanConservative Party61934.3%
3Inez CollierLabour Party1608.9%

EC ward code E05004153 · Back to ward index

Waltham Abbey Honey Lane · single-seat

Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 57.6% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +7.6 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,054

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Glynis ShiellConservative Party60757.6%+7.6 ptsElected
2Mitch Diamond-ConwayLabour Party30328.7%
3Linda Johnson-LairdGreen Party14413.7%

EC ward code E05004175 · Back to ward index

Waltham Abbey North East · single-seat

Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 57.6% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +7.6 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 885

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Jeane LeaConservative Party51057.6%+7.6 ptsElected
2Barbara RobertsonUK Independence Party (UKIP)22925.9%
3Timothy VaughanLiberal Democrats798.9%
4Elliot SeymourGreen Party677.6%

EC ward code E05004176 · Back to ward index

Buckhurst Hill West · single-seat

Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 58.7% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +8.7 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,760

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Gavin ChambersConservative Party1,03358.7%+8.7 ptsElected
2Elanor FurlongGreen Party34819.8%
3Joseph BarkhamLiberal Democrats33318.9%
4Gerard WadsworthYPP462.6%

EC ward code E05004149 · Back to ward index

Chigwell Row · single-seat

Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 62.9% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +12.9 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 591

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Brian SandlerConservative Party37262.9%+12.9 ptsElected
2Joanne Alexander-SefreLiberal Democrats17629.8%
3Rupert NelsonGreen Party437.3%

EC ward code E05004150 · Back to ward index

Loughton Alderton · single-seat

Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 63.8% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +13.8 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 868

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Debra RobertsLoughton55463.8%+13.8 ptsElected
2Jonathan HunterConservative Party16819.4%
3Angela AyreLabour Party14616.8%

EC ward code E05004159 · Back to ward index

Grange Hill · single-seat

Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 65.1% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +15.1 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,346

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Alan LionConservative Party87665.1%+15.1 ptsElected
2Alison GarnhamGreen Party47034.9%

EC ward code E05004155 · Back to ward index

Loughton Broadway · single-seat

Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 68.7% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +18.7 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 835

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Leon GirlingLoughton57468.7%+18.7 ptsElected
2Barry JohnsUK Independence Party (UKIP)18622.3%
3Darshan SungerConservative Party759.0%

EC ward code E05004160 · Back to ward index

Loughton St Mary's · single-seat

Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 69.0% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +19.0 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,305

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Judy JenningsLoughton90169.0%+19.0 ptsElected
2Jaswinder PhullConservative Party32725.1%
3James RidgwellLiberal Democrats775.9%

EC ward code E05004165 · Back to ward index

Loughton Forest · 2-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~2× smaller. 54.1% Proportional quota 33.3% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +20.8 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 2 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,217

This is a 2-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~2×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 2, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 2. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Amy BealesLoughton69628.6%57.2%+23.9 ptsElected
2Roger BaldwinLoughton65927.1%54.1%+20.8 ptsElected
3Stephen PorcasConservative Party51221.0%42.1%
4Chris CriscioneConservative Party47319.4%38.9%
5Paul RissbrookLiberal Democrats943.9%7.7%

EC ward code E05004162 · Back to ward index

High Ongar, Willingale and the Rodings · single-seat

Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 71.5% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +21.5 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 452

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Maggie McEwenConservative Party32371.5%+21.5 ptsElected
2Llyris StebbingsUK Independence Party (UKIP)9521.0%
3Robin TilbrookEDP347.5%

EC ward code E05004157 · Back to ward index

Chigwell Village · single-seat

Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 75.1% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +25.1 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 990

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1John KnapmanConservative Party74375.1%+25.1 ptsElected
2Christopher LordGreen Party12412.5%
3Isuru PereraLabour Party12312.4%

EC ward code E05004151 · Back to ward index

Moreton and Fyfield · single-seat

Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 75.4% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +25.4 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 501

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Tony BoyceConservative Party37875.4%+25.4 ptsElected
2David MillsUK Independence Party (UKIP)12324.6%

EC ward code E05008941 · Back to ward index

Theydon Bois · single-seat

Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 76.6% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +26.6 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,085

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1John PhilipConservative Party83176.6%+26.6 ptsElected
2George LundLiberal Democrats25423.4%

EC ward code E05004173 · Back to ward index

Loughton St John's · single-seat

Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 81.8% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +31.8 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,200

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Caroline PondLoughton98281.8%+31.8 ptsElected
2Bob ChurchConservative Party21818.2%

EC ward code E05004164 · Back to ward index

Loughton Roding · single-seat

Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 84.1% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +34.1 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,264

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Rose BrookesLoughton1,06384.1%+34.1 ptsElected
2Sam ClarkConservative Party20115.9%

EC ward code E05004163 · Back to ward index

Loughton Fairmead · single-seat

Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 84.9% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +34.9 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 812

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1David WisleyLoughton68984.9%+34.9 ptsElected
2Ryan SparrowhawkConservative Party12315.1%

EC ward code E05004161 · Back to ward index