← Epping Forest (all cycles) · 2 May 2019 cohort
Epping Forest 2019
Local elections held 2 May 2019.
How to read this page
Each race below shows the share of valid ballots the marginal elected candidate actually won, and compares it to the proportional quota: the share they'd need to clinch the seat under any proportional voting method (1 seats + 1). For a 1-seat ward the quota is 50%; for 2 seats, 33.3%; for 3 seats, 25%.
Where the actual winning share fell below the quota, we show the signed gap as points below quota (a negative number) — the editorial indictment. Above-quota results clear the bar and pass without comment. The voting method is the subject of every observation here. Named candidates appear as the public election record requires; the cause being audited is the voting method, not the individuals. See the methodology page for derivations.
If votes were counted by party
Across the 16 wards in this cycle, parties received the vote totals below. The proportional column shows what each party would have won if the 16 seats had been shared out in proportion to votes received (how, with caveats). The Δ column is the actual seat count minus the proportional seat count — positive numbers are parties First-Past-the-Post over-represented; negative are parties it under-represented.
| Party | Votes | Vote % | Seats won | % of seats | Proportional seats | Proportional % | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative Party | 7,612 | 50.5% | 13 | 81.3% | 9 | 56.3% | +4 |
| Liberal Democrats | 3,958 | 26.2% | 1 | 6.3% | 5 | 31.3% | -4 |
| Labour Party | 1,110 | 7.4% | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 6.3% | -1 |
| Green Party | 976 | 6.5% | 1 | 6.3% | 1 | 6.3% | 0 |
| ForBritn | 571 | 3.8% | 1 | 6.3% | 0 | 0.0% | +1 |
| Independent | 430 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 208 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| EDP | 166 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| YPP | 51 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Total | 15,082 | 100.0% | 16 | 100.0% | 16 | 100.0% | 0 |
Vote share vs seats won
The top bar is each party's share of votes cast in this council. Below, one square per seat, coloured by the party that won it — first the actual First-Past-the-Post result, then what a proportional method would have produced from the same vote totals. Divergence between the bar and the actual grid is the indictment of the method.
Council composition: what this election replaced
Two opencouncildata snapshots: the council immediately after the 2019 election (current) and immediately before it (2018). Only ~⅓ of seats were contested in 2019 — most of the bench is unchanged, and the cycle's effect on the overall composition is what shifts.
Wards in this council
Sorted with the largest gap below the quota first. Click any ward to jump to its full result.
- Waltham Abbey Honey Lane · 1 seat · won at 40.2% · −9.8 pts below quota
- Waltham Abbey Paternoster · 1 seat · won at 40.7% · −9.3 pts below quota
- Epping Lindsey and Thornwood Common · 1 seat · won at 46.1% · −3.9 pts below quota
- Buckhurst Hill West · 1 seat · won at 47.8% · −2.2 pts below quota
- North Weald Bassett · 1 seat · won at 53.5% · above quota
- Lower Nazeing · 1 seat · won at 59.4% · above quota
- Chipping Ongar, Greensted and Marden Ash · 1 seat · won at 59.5% · above quota
- Waltham Abbey High Beach · 1 seat · won at 60.0% · above quota
- Waltham Abbey North East · 1 seat · won at 60.5% · above quota
- Waltham Abbey South West · 1 seat · won at 62.0% · above quota
- Epping Hemnall · 1 seat · won at 62.8% · above quota
- Grange Hill · 1 seat · won at 64.1% · above quota
- Lower Sheering · 1 seat · won at 68.2% · above quota
- Roydon · 1 seat · won at 71.3% · above quota
- Broadley Common, Epping Upland and Nazeing · 1 seat · won at 71.6% · above quota
- Lambourne · 1 seat · won at 74.7% · above quota
Race results
Waltham Abbey Honey Lane · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 40.2% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −9.8 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,086
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sam Kane | Conservative Party | 437 | 40.2% | −9.8 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Pat Richardson | ForBritn | 250 | 23.0% | — | |
| 3 | Robert Greyson | Labour Party | 175 | 16.1% | — | |
| 4 | Carina Hill | Green Party | 145 | 13.4% | — | |
| 5 | Philip Chadburn | Liberal Democrats | 79 | 7.3% | — |
Waltham Abbey Paternoster · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 40.7% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −9.3 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 788
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Julian Leppert | ForBritn | 321 | 40.7% | −9.3 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Liz Webster | Conservative Party | 227 | 28.8% | — | |
| 3 | Gareth Rawlings | Labour Party | 140 | 17.8% | — | |
| 4 | Vernon Gurtner | Green Party | 69 | 8.8% | — | |
| 5 | Nick Read | Liberal Democrats | 31 | 3.9% | — |
Epping Lindsey and Thornwood Common · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 46.1% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −3.9 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,870
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Whitbread | Conservative Party | 862 | 46.1% | −3.9 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Ingrid Black | Liberal Democrats | 783 | 41.9% | — | |
| 3 | Simon Bullough | Labour Party | 116 | 6.2% | — | |
| 4 | Barry Johns | Independent | 109 | 5.8% | — |
Buckhurst Hill West · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 47.8% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −2.2 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 2,045
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aniket Patel | Conservative Party | 977 | 47.8% | −2.2 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Joseph Barkham | Liberal Democrats | 891 | 43.6% | — | |
| 3 | Jill Bostock | Labour Party | 126 | 6.2% | — | |
| 4 | Thomas Hall | YPP | 51 | 2.5% | — |
North Weald Bassett · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 53.5% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +3.5 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 878
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaymey McIvor | Conservative Party | 470 | 53.5% | +3.5 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Andy Tyler | Independent | 225 | 25.6% | — | |
| 3 | Georgia Simmons | Liberal Democrats | 183 | 20.8% | — |
Lower Nazeing · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 59.4% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +9.4 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 896
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Richard Bassett | Conservative Party | 532 | 59.4% | +9.4 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Martin Harvey | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 208 | 23.2% | — | |
| 3 | Elaine Thatcher | Liberal Democrats | 156 | 17.4% | — |
Chipping Ongar, Greensted and Marden Ash · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 59.5% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +9.5 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 963
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Keska | Conservative Party | 573 | 59.5% | +9.5 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Allan Edmunds | Liberal Democrats | 224 | 23.3% | — | |
| 3 | Robin Tilbrook | EDP | 166 | 17.2% | — |
Waltham Abbey High Beach · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 60.0% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +10.0 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 492
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Syd Stavrou | Conservative Party | 295 | 60.0% | +10.0 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Naomi Davies | Liberal Democrats | 101 | 20.5% | — | |
| 3 | Paul Morris | Independent | 96 | 19.5% | — |
Waltham Abbey North East · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 60.5% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +10.5 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 755
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ann Mitchell | Conservative Party | 457 | 60.5% | +10.5 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Rebecca Fricker | Green Party | 182 | 24.1% | — | |
| 3 | Timothy Vaughan | Liberal Democrats | 116 | 15.4% | — |
Waltham Abbey South West · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 62.0% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +12.0 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 795
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dave Plummer | Green Party | 493 | 62.0% | +12.0 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Ricki Gadsby | Conservative Party | 302 | 38.0% | — |
Epping Hemnall · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 62.8% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +12.8 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,698
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cherry McCredie | Liberal Democrats | 1,066 | 62.8% | +12.8 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Michael Ellis | Conservative Party | 547 | 32.2% | — | |
| 3 | Inez Collier | Labour Party | 85 | 5.0% | — |
Grange Hill · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 64.1% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +14.1 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,091
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sheree Rackham | Conservative Party | 699 | 64.1% | +14.1 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Kay Morrison | Labour Party | 392 | 35.9% | — |
Lower Sheering · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 68.2% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +18.2 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 387
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Stalker | Conservative Party | 264 | 68.2% | +18.2 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Pesh Kapasiawala | Liberal Democrats | 123 | 31.8% | — |
Roydon · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 71.3% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +21.3 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 478
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mary Sartin | Conservative Party | 341 | 71.3% | +21.3 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Stuart Shipton | Labour Party | 76 | 15.9% | — | |
| 3 | Clive Amos | Liberal Democrats | 61 | 12.8% | — |
Broadley Common, Epping Upland and Nazeing · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 71.6% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +21.6 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 437
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nigel Avey | Conservative Party | 313 | 71.6% | +21.6 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Anna Widdup | Green Party | 87 | 19.9% | — | |
| 3 | Edward Barnard | Liberal Democrats | 37 | 8.5% | — |
Lambourne · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 74.7% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +24.7 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 423
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Rolfe | Conservative Party | 316 | 74.7% | +24.7 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Richard Griffiths | Liberal Democrats | 107 | 25.3% | — |