← Hart (all cycles) · 2 May 2019 cohort
Hart 2019
Local elections held 2 May 2019.
How to read this page
Each race below shows the share of valid ballots the marginal elected candidate actually won, and compares it to the proportional quota: the share they'd need to clinch the seat under any proportional voting method (1 seats + 1). For a 1-seat ward the quota is 50%; for 2 seats, 33.3%; for 3 seats, 25%.
Where the actual winning share fell below the quota, we show the signed gap as points below quota (a negative number) — the editorial indictment. Above-quota results clear the bar and pass without comment. The voting method is the subject of every observation here. Named candidates appear as the public election record requires; the cause being audited is the voting method, not the individuals. See the methodology page for derivations.
If votes were counted by party
Across the 11 wards in this cycle, parties received the vote totals below. The proportional column shows what each party would have won if the 12 seats had been shared out in proportion to votes received (how, with caveats). The Δ column is the actual seat count minus the proportional seat count — positive numbers are parties First-Past-the-Post over-represented; negative are parties it under-represented.
| Party | Votes | Vote % | Seats won | % of seats | Proportional seats | Proportional % | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative Party | 8,495 | 30.7% | 3 | 25.0% | 5 | 41.7% | -2 |
| Liberal Democrats | 8,026 | 29.0% | 4 | 33.3% | 4 | 33.3% | 0 |
| CC(Hart) | 6,341 | 22.9% | 4 | 33.3% | 3 | 25.0% | +1 |
| Independent | 1,596 | 5.8% | 1 | 8.3% | 0 | 0.0% | +1 |
| Labour Party | 1,146 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Green Party | 1,041 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 662 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| ForBritn | 265 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Loony | 118 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Total | 27,690 | 100.0% | 12 | 100.0% | 12 | 100.0% | 0 |
Vote share vs seats won
The top bar is each party's share of votes cast in this council. Below, one square per seat, coloured by the party that won it — first the actual First-Past-the-Post result, then what a proportional method would have produced from the same vote totals. Divergence between the bar and the actual grid is the indictment of the method.
Council composition: what this election replaced
Two opencouncildata snapshots: the council immediately after the 2019 election (current) and immediately before it (2018). Only ~⅓ of seats were contested in 2019 — most of the bench is unchanged, and the cycle's effect on the overall composition is what shifts.
Wards in this council
Sorted with the largest gap below the quota first. Click any ward to jump to its full result.
- Hartley Wintney · 1 seat · won at 42.1% · −7.9 pts below quota
- Hook · 2 seats · won at 35.4% · above quota
- Odiham · 1 seat · won at 56.0% · above quota
- Fleet West · 1 seat · won at 56.1% · above quota
- Fleet East · 1 seat · won at 60.4% · above quota
- Yateley West · 1 seat · won at 63.9% · above quota
- Fleet Central · 1 seat · won at 64.2% · above quota
- Yateley East · 1 seat · won at 67.8% · above quota
- Blackwater and Hawley · 1 seat · won at 70.4% · above quota
- Crookham East · 1 seat · won at 72.3% · above quota
- Crookham West and Ewshot · 1 seat · won at 74.4% · above quota
Race results
Hartley Wintney · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 42.1% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −7.9 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 2,526
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spencer Farmer | Conservative Party | 1,064 | 42.1% | −7.9 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Howard Kitto | Liberal Democrats | 858 | 34.0% | — | |
| 3 | Ruth Jarman | Green Party | 389 | 15.4% | — | |
| 4 | Roger Robertson | ForBritn | 215 | 8.5% | — |
Hook · 2-seat (bloc vote)
Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~2× smaller. 35.4% Proportional quota 33.3% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +2.1 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 2 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 2,276
This is a 2-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~2×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 2, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 2. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dermot Smith | Independent | 1,596 | 35.1% | 70.1% | +36.8 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Anne Tomlinson | Conservative Party | 806 | 17.7% | 35.4% | +2.1 pts | Elected |
| 3 | Craig Wilson | Liberal Democrats | 799 | 17.6% | 35.1% | — | |
| 4 | Jonathan Hale | Conservative Party | 790 | 17.4% | 34.7% | — | |
| 5 | Amanda Affleck-Cruise | Labour Party | 301 | 6.6% | 13.2% | — | |
| 6 | Ruth Hamilton | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 260 | 5.7% | 11.4% | — |
Odiham · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 56.0% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +6.0 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 2,225
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christopher Dorn | Conservative Party | 1,247 | 56.0% | +6.0 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Anthony Over | Liberal Democrats | 544 | 24.4% | — | |
| 3 | Lars Mosesson | Green Party | 434 | 19.5% | — |
Fleet West · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 56.1% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +6.1 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 2,195
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sara-Lea Kinnell | CC(Hart) | 1,232 | 56.1% | +6.1 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Glyn Carpenter | Conservative Party | 659 | 30.0% | — | |
| 3 | Wayne Rozier | Green Party | 218 | 9.9% | — | |
| 4 | Michael Mellor | Labour Party | 86 | 3.9% | — |
Fleet East · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 60.4% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +10.4 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 2,323
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peter Wildsmith | Liberal Democrats | 1,402 | 60.4% | +10.4 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Stephen Parker | Conservative Party | 781 | 33.6% | — | |
| 3 | John Gawthorpe | Labour Party | 140 | 6.0% | — |
Yateley West · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 63.9% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +13.9 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 2,419
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roger Lamb | Liberal Democrats | 1,545 | 63.9% | +13.9 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Shawn Dickens | Conservative Party | 515 | 21.3% | — | |
| 3 | John Howe | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 192 | 7.9% | — | |
| 4 | John Davies | Labour Party | 117 | 4.8% | — | |
| 5 | Geoffrey Crompton | ForBritn | 50 | 2.1% | — |
Fleet Central · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 64.2% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +14.2 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 2,505
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Katherine Davies | CC(Hart) | 1,607 | 64.2% | +14.2 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Jonathan Seale | Conservative Party | 632 | 25.2% | — | |
| 3 | Jack Theaker | Labour Party | 148 | 5.9% | — | |
| 4 | Alan Hope | Loony | 118 | 4.7% | — |
Yateley East · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 67.8% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +17.8 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 2,313
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Neighbour | Liberal Democrats | 1,569 | 67.8% | +17.8 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Christopher Barnes | Conservative Party | 624 | 27.0% | — | |
| 3 | Beaumont Nabbs | Labour Party | 120 | 5.2% | — |
Blackwater and Hawley · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 70.4% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +20.4 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,860
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Harward | Liberal Democrats | 1,309 | 70.4% | +20.4 pts | Elected |
| 2 | John Burton | Conservative Party | 341 | 18.3% | — | |
| 3 | Michael Gascoigne | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 210 | 11.3% | — |
Crookham East · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 72.3% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +22.3 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 2,311
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christopher Axam | CC(Hart) | 1,670 | 72.3% | +22.3 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Sebastian Gidley | Conservative Party | 536 | 23.2% | — | |
| 3 | Clive Astin | Labour Party | 105 | 4.5% | — |
Crookham West and Ewshot · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 74.4% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +24.4 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 2,461
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anthony Clarke | CC(Hart) | 1,832 | 74.4% | +24.4 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Michael Thorne | Conservative Party | 500 | 20.3% | — | |
| 3 | Lila Mabo | Labour Party | 129 | 5.2% | — |