← Hertsmere (all cycles) · 2 May 2019 cohort
Hertsmere 2019
Local elections held 2 May 2019.
How to read this page
Each race below shows the share of valid ballots the marginal elected candidate actually won, and compares it to the proportional quota: the share they'd need to clinch the seat under any proportional voting method (1 seats + 1). For a 1-seat ward the quota is 50%; for 2 seats, 33.3%; for 3 seats, 25%.
Where the actual winning share fell below the quota, we show the signed gap as points below quota (a negative number) — the editorial indictment. Above-quota results clear the bar and pass without comment. The voting method is the subject of every observation here. Named candidates appear as the public election record requires; the cause being audited is the voting method, not the individuals. See the methodology page for derivations.
If votes were counted by party
Across the 16 wards in this cycle, parties received the vote totals below. The proportional column shows what each party would have won if the 39 seats had been shared out in proportion to votes received (how, with caveats). The Δ column is the actual seat count minus the proportional seat count — positive numbers are parties First-Past-the-Post over-represented; negative are parties it under-represented.
| Party | Votes | Vote % | Seats won | % of seats | Proportional seats | Proportional % | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative Party | 30,198 | 54.2% | 29 | 74.4% | 22 | 56.4% | +7 |
| Labour Party | 15,779 | 28.3% | 7 | 17.9% | 12 | 30.8% | -5 |
| Liberal Democrats | 6,487 | 11.6% | 3 | 7.7% | 4 | 10.3% | -1 |
| Independent | 2,381 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 2.6% | -1 |
| UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 897 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Total | 55,742 | 100.0% | 39 | 100.0% | 39 | 100.0% | 0 |
Vote share vs seats won
The top bar is each party's share of votes cast in this council. Below, one square per seat, coloured by the party that won it — first the actual First-Past-the-Post result, then what a proportional method would have produced from the same vote totals. Divergence between the bar and the actual grid is the indictment of the method.
Council composition: what this election replaced
The 2019 cycle was an all-out election — every seat was contested. The two opencouncildata snapshots below show the council immediately after the 2019 election (current) and on the eve of it (2018), so you can see what the result replaced.
Wards in this council
Sorted with the largest gap below the quota first. Click any ward to jump to its full result.
- Potters Bar Furzefield · 2 seats · won at 47.6% · above quota
- Borehamwood Brookmeadow · 3 seats · won at 39.4% · above quota
- Bushey North · 3 seats · won at 41.9% · above quota
- Borehamwood Hillside · 3 seats · won at 43.2% · above quota
- Potters Bar Parkfield · 2 seats · won at 51.8% · above quota
- Potters Bar Oakmere · 2 seats · won at 58.1% · above quota
- Borehamwood Kenilworth · 3 seats · won at 50.1% · above quota
- Shenley · 2 seats · won at 61.8% · above quota
- Bushey St James · 3 seats · won at 54.4% · above quota
- Borehamwood Cowley Hill · 3 seats · won at 55.5% · above quota
- Bentley Heath and the Royds · 2 seats · won at 67.8% · above quota
- Aldenham West · 2 seats · won at 71.1% · above quota
- Bushey Park · 3 seats · won at 64.3% · above quota
- Aldenham East · 2 seats · won at 72.6% · above quota
- Elstree · 2 seats · won at 75.6% · above quota
- Bushey Heath · 2 seats · won at 75.9% · above quota
Race results
Potters Bar Furzefield · 2-seat (bloc vote)
Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~2× smaller. 47.6% Proportional quota 33.3% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +14.3 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 2 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,225
This is a 2-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~2×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 2, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 2. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian Gray | Labour Party | 611 | 24.9% | 49.9% | +16.5 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Chris Myers | Labour Party | 583 | 23.8% | 47.6% | +14.3 pts | Elected |
| 3 | Peter Knell | Conservative Party | 543 | 22.2% | 44.3% | — | |
| 4 | Martin Worster | Conservative Party | 508 | 20.7% | 41.5% | — | |
| 5 | David Hoy | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 205 | 8.4% | 16.7% | — |
Borehamwood Brookmeadow · 3-seat (bloc vote)
Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~3× smaller. 39.4% Proportional quota 25.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +14.4 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 3 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,857
This is a 3-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~3×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 3, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 3. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Susan Brown | Conservative Party | 830 | 14.9% | 44.7% | +19.7 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Alan Plancey | Conservative Party | 827 | 14.8% | 44.5% | +19.5 pts | Elected |
| 3 | Glenn Briski | Conservative Party | 731 | 13.1% | 39.4% | +14.4 pts | Elected |
| 4 | Graeme Alexander | Labour Party | 711 | 12.8% | 38.3% | — | |
| 5 | Alpha Collins | Labour Party | 681 | 12.2% | 36.7% | — | |
| 6 | Prabhakar Kaza | Labour Party | 641 | 11.5% | 34.5% | — | |
| 7 | Gary Silver | Independent | 433 | 7.8% | 23.3% | — | |
| 8 | Eric Silver | Independent | 417 | 7.5% | 22.5% | — | |
| 9 | Katie Hunter | Independent | 301 | 5.4% | 16.2% | — |
Bushey North · 3-seat (bloc vote)
Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~3× smaller. 41.9% Proportional quota 25.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +16.9 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 3 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,629
This is a 3-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~3×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 3, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 3. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jerry Evans | Liberal Democrats | 744 | 15.2% | 45.7% | +20.7 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Andrew Melville | Liberal Democrats | 743 | 15.2% | 45.6% | +20.6 pts | Elected |
| 3 | Paul Richards | Liberal Democrats | 682 | 14.0% | 41.9% | +16.9 pts | Elected |
| 4 | Lawrence Davis | Conservative Party | 597 | 12.2% | 36.6% | — | |
| 5 | Jane West | Conservative Party | 590 | 12.1% | 36.2% | — | |
| 6 | Kashif Merchant | Conservative Party | 477 | 9.8% | 29.3% | — | |
| 7 | John Barratt | Labour Party | 324 | 6.6% | 19.9% | — | |
| 8 | Sandy Mercado | Labour Party | 271 | 5.5% | 16.6% | — | |
| 9 | Fikile Mkoyana | Labour Party | 264 | 5.4% | 16.2% | — | |
| 10 | Vikki Johnson | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 196 | 4.0% | 12.0% | — |
Borehamwood Hillside · 3-seat (bloc vote)
Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~3× smaller. 43.2% Proportional quota 25.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +18.2 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 3 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,525
This is a 3-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~3×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 3, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 3. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Farida Turner | Conservative Party | 700 | 15.3% | 45.9% | +20.9 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Victor Eni | Conservative Party | 698 | 15.3% | 45.8% | +20.8 pts | Elected |
| 3 | Meenal Sachdev | Conservative Party | 659 | 14.4% | 43.2% | +18.2 pts | Elected |
| 4 | Rachel Shaw | Labour Party | 404 | 8.8% | 26.5% | — | |
| 5 | Mik Levin | Labour Party | 391 | 8.5% | 25.6% | — | |
| 6 | Henry Okonu | Labour Party | 390 | 8.5% | 25.6% | — | |
| 7 | Andy Lewis | Liberal Democrats | 315 | 6.9% | 20.7% | — | |
| 8 | Joe Hunter | Independent | 284 | 6.2% | 18.6% | — | |
| 9 | Sophie Aldridge | Liberal Democrats | 262 | 5.7% | 17.2% | — | |
| 10 | Elaine Elliman | Liberal Democrats | 248 | 5.4% | 16.3% | — | |
| 11 | David Appleby | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 224 | 4.9% | 14.7% | — |
Potters Bar Parkfield · 2-seat (bloc vote)
Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~2× smaller. 51.8% Proportional quota 33.3% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +18.4 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 2 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,320
This is a 2-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~2×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 2, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 2. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Hodgson-Jones | Conservative Party | 754 | 28.6% | 57.1% | +23.8 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Abhishek Sachdev | Conservative Party | 683 | 25.9% | 51.8% | +18.4 pts | Elected |
| 3 | Jonathan Brett | Liberal Democrats | 447 | 16.9% | 33.9% | — | |
| 4 | Sachin Saggar | Liberal Democrats | 397 | 15.0% | 30.1% | — | |
| 5 | Lynda Stoker | Labour Party | 190 | 7.2% | 14.4% | — | |
| 6 | Chris Shellard | Labour Party | 168 | 6.4% | 12.7% | — |
Potters Bar Oakmere · 2-seat (bloc vote)
Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~2× smaller. 58.1% Proportional quota 33.3% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +24.8 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 2 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,110
This is a 2-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~2×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 2, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 2. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jean Heywood | Conservative Party | 665 | 30.0% | 59.9% | +26.6 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Christine Lyon | Conservative Party | 645 | 29.1% | 58.1% | +24.8 pts | Elected |
| 3 | John Doolan | Labour Party | 459 | 20.7% | 41.4% | — | |
| 4 | Ann Harrison | Labour Party | 450 | 20.3% | 40.6% | — |
Borehamwood Kenilworth · 3-seat (bloc vote)
Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~3× smaller. 50.1% Proportional quota 25.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +25.1 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 3 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,636
This is a 3-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~3×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 3, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 3. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rebecca Butler | Labour Party | 987 | 20.1% | 60.3% | +35.3 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Cynthia Barker | Conservative Party | 822 | 16.7% | 50.2% | +25.2 pts | Elected |
| 3 | Kumail Jaffer (ELECTED) | Labour Party | 819 | 16.7% | 50.1% | +25.1 pts | Elected |
| 4 | Dan Ozarow (NOT ELECTED) | Labour Party | 819 | 16.7% | 50.1% | — | |
| 5 | Samantha Evans | Conservative Party | 738 | 15.0% | 45.1% | — | |
| 6 | Przemek de Skuba | Conservative Party | 724 | 14.7% | 44.2% | — |
Shenley · 2-seat (bloc vote)
Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~2× smaller. 61.8% Proportional quota 33.3% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +28.4 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 2 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,239
This is a 2-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~2×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 2, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 2. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Natalie Susman | Conservative Party | 776 | 31.3% | 62.7% | +29.3 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Anthony Spencer | Conservative Party | 765 | 30.9% | 61.8% | +28.4 pts | Elected |
| 3 | Rosemary Gilligan | Independent | 523 | 21.1% | 42.2% | — | |
| 4 | Ray Edge | Labour Party | 238 | 9.6% | 19.2% | — | |
| 5 | Helen Yenilmez | Labour Party | 175 | 7.1% | 14.1% | — |
Bushey St James · 3-seat (bloc vote)
Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~3× smaller. 54.4% Proportional quota 25.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +29.4 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 3 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,400
This is a 3-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~3×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 3, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 3. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peter Rutledge | Conservative Party | 790 | 18.8% | 56.4% | +31.4 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Pervez Choudhury | Conservative Party | 779 | 18.6% | 55.7% | +30.7 pts | Elected |
| 3 | Harry Mortimer | Conservative Party | 762 | 18.1% | 54.4% | +29.4 pts | Elected |
| 4 | Holly Gunning | Liberal Democrats | 363 | 8.6% | 25.9% | — | |
| 5 | Yue Cheng | Labour Party | 313 | 7.5% | 22.4% | — | |
| 6 | Christopher Scobie | Liberal Democrats | 312 | 7.4% | 22.3% | — | |
| 7 | Hannah Uri | Liberal Democrats | 307 | 7.3% | 21.9% | — | |
| 8 | David McGregor | Labour Party | 291 | 6.9% | 20.8% | — | |
| 9 | Mary Reid | Labour Party | 282 | 6.7% | 20.1% | — |
Borehamwood Cowley Hill · 3-seat (bloc vote)
Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~3× smaller. 55.5% Proportional quota 25.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +30.5 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 3 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,322
This is a 3-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~3×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 3, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 3. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Richard Butler | Labour Party | 879 | 22.2% | 66.5% | +41.5 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Michelle Vince | Labour Party | 866 | 21.8% | 65.5% | +40.5 pts | Elected |
| 3 | Jeremy Newmark | Labour Party | 733 | 18.5% | 55.5% | +30.5 pts | Elected |
| 4 | Clive Butchins | Conservative Party | 417 | 10.5% | 31.6% | — | |
| 5 | Rodney Burt | Conservative Party | 408 | 10.3% | 30.9% | — | |
| 6 | Andy Grady | Conservative Party | 390 | 9.8% | 29.5% | — | |
| 7 | Lee Greenfield | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 272 | 6.9% | 20.6% | — |
Bentley Heath and the Royds · 2-seat (bloc vote)
Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~2× smaller. 67.8% Proportional quota 33.3% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +34.5 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 2 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,218
This is a 2-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~2×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 2, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 2. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mike Reeve | Conservative Party | 833 | 34.2% | 68.4% | +35.1 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Sarah Hodgson-Jones | Conservative Party | 826 | 33.9% | 67.8% | +34.5 pts | Elected |
| 3 | Harvey Ward | Labour Party | 408 | 16.8% | 33.5% | — | |
| 4 | Austin Harney | Labour Party | 368 | 15.1% | 30.2% | — |
Aldenham West · 2-seat (bloc vote)
Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~2× smaller. 71.1% Proportional quota 33.3% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +37.7 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 2 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,189
This is a 2-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~2×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 2, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 2. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caroline Clapper | Conservative Party | 1,001 | 42.1% | 84.2% | +50.9 pts | Elected |
| 2 | David Lambert | Conservative Party | 845 | 35.5% | 71.1% | +37.7 pts | Elected |
| 3 | Paul Watson | Liberal Democrats | 197 | 8.3% | 16.6% | — | |
| 4 | Richard Kirk | Labour Party | 175 | 7.4% | 14.7% | — | |
| 5 | John Maizels | Labour Party | 160 | 6.7% | 13.5% | — |
Bushey Park · 3-seat (bloc vote)
Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~3× smaller. 64.3% Proportional quota 25.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +39.3 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 3 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,793
This is a 3-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~3×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 3, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 3. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linda Silver | Conservative Party | 1,241 | 23.1% | 69.2% | +44.2 pts | Elected |
| 2 | David Carter | Conservative Party | 1,232 | 22.9% | 68.7% | +43.7 pts | Elected |
| 3 | Anne Swerling | Conservative Party | 1,153 | 21.4% | 64.3% | +39.3 pts | Elected |
| 4 | Anne Diamond | Liberal Democrats | 327 | 6.1% | 18.2% | — | |
| 5 | Nik Oakley | Labour Party | 309 | 5.7% | 17.2% | — | |
| 6 | Brian Silverman | Liberal Democrats | 296 | 5.5% | 16.5% | — | |
| 7 | Judith Melinek | Liberal Democrats | 290 | 5.4% | 16.2% | — | |
| 8 | Di Hoeksma | Labour Party | 286 | 5.3% | 16.0% | — | |
| 9 | Matthew McHale | Labour Party | 245 | 4.6% | 13.7% | — |
Aldenham East · 2-seat (bloc vote)
Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~2× smaller. 72.6% Proportional quota 33.3% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +39.3 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 2 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,457
This is a 2-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~2×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 2, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 2. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lucy Selby | Conservative Party | 1,097 | 37.7% | 75.3% | +42.0 pts | Elected |
| 2 | John Graham | Conservative Party | 1,058 | 36.3% | 72.6% | +39.3 pts | Elected |
| 3 | Sue Dickson | Independent | 251 | 8.6% | 17.2% | — | |
| 4 | Saif al-Saadoon | Liberal Democrats | 204 | 7.0% | 14.0% | — | |
| 5 | David Harris | Labour Party | 160 | 5.5% | 11.0% | — | |
| 6 | Sandra Huff | Labour Party | 143 | 4.9% | 9.8% | — |
Elstree · 2-seat (bloc vote)
Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~2× smaller. 75.6% Proportional quota 33.3% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +42.3 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 2 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,226
This is a 2-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~2×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 2, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 2. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harvey Cohen | Conservative Party | 956 | 39.0% | 78.0% | +44.7 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Morris Bright | Conservative Party | 927 | 37.8% | 75.6% | +42.3 pts | Elected |
| 3 | Caroline Pitrakou | Labour Party | 202 | 8.2% | 16.5% | — | |
| 4 | Elsa Reyes Maguina | Labour Party | 194 | 7.9% | 15.8% | — | |
| 5 | Stella Hunter | Independent | 172 | 7.0% | 14.0% | — |
Bushey Heath · 2-seat (bloc vote)
Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~2× smaller. 75.9% Proportional quota 33.3% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +42.5 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 2 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,147
This is a 2-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~2×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 2, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 2. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Morris | Conservative Party | 881 | 38.4% | 76.8% | +43.5 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Seamus Quilty | Conservative Party | 870 | 37.9% | 75.9% | +42.5 pts | Elected |
| 3 | Roger Kutchinsky | Liberal Democrats | 183 | 8.0% | 16.0% | — | |
| 4 | Andrew Brass | Liberal Democrats | 170 | 7.4% | 14.8% | — | |
| 5 | David Bearfield | Labour Party | 109 | 4.8% | 9.5% | — | |
| 6 | Abdul Jabarkhail | Labour Party | 80 | 3.5% | 7.0% | — |