← Mole Valley (all cycles) · 5 May 2016 cohort
Mole Valley 2016
Local elections held 5 May 2016.
How to read this page
Each race below shows the share of valid ballots the marginal elected candidate actually won, and compares it to the proportional quota: the share they'd need to clinch the seat under any proportional voting method (1 seats + 1). For a 1-seat ward the quota is 50%; for 2 seats, 33.3%; for 3 seats, 25%.
Where the actual winning share fell below the quota, we show the signed gap as points below quota (a negative number) — the editorial indictment. Above-quota results clear the bar and pass without comment. The voting method is the subject of every observation here. Named candidates appear as the public election record requires; the cause being audited is the voting method, not the individuals. See the methodology page for derivations.
If votes were counted by party
Across the 13 wards in this cycle, parties received the vote totals below. The proportional column shows what each party would have won if the 14 seats had been shared out in proportion to votes received (how, with caveats). The Δ column is the actual seat count minus the proportional seat count — positive numbers are parties First-Past-the-Post over-represented; negative are parties it under-represented.
| Party | Votes | Vote % | Seats won | % of seats | Proportional seats | Proportional % | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative Party | 7,848 | 35.6% | 5 | 35.7% | 6 | 42.9% | -1 |
| Liberal Democrats | 6,222 | 28.2% | 5 | 35.7% | 4 | 28.6% | +1 |
| Ashtead | 3,862 | 17.5% | 4 | 28.6% | 2 | 14.3% | +2 |
| UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 1,644 | 7.5% | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 7.1% | -1 |
| Green Party | 1,356 | 6.2% | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 7.1% | -1 |
| Labour Party | 1,115 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Total | 22,047 | 100.0% | 14 | 100.0% | 14 | 100.0% | 0 |
Vote share vs seats won
The top bar is each party's share of votes cast in this council. Below, one square per seat, coloured by the party that won it — first the actual First-Past-the-Post result, then what a proportional method would have produced from the same vote totals. Divergence between the bar and the actual grid is the indictment of the method.
Council composition: what this election replaced
Two opencouncildata snapshots: the council immediately after the 2016 election (current) and immediately before it (2015). Only ~⅓ of seats were contested in 2016 — most of the bench is unchanged, and the cycle's effect on the overall composition is what shifts.
Wards in this council
Sorted with the largest gap below the quota first. Click any ward to jump to its full result.
- Leatherhead North · 1 seat · won at 33.4% · −16.6 pts below quota
- Holmwoods · 1 seat · won at 44.9% · −5.1 pts below quota
- Dorking South · 1 seat · won at 45.4% · −4.6 pts below quota
- Bookham North · 1 seat · won at 46.8% · −3.2 pts below quota
- Bookham South · 1 seat · won at 48.1% · −1.9 pts below quota
- Leatherhead South · 1 seat · won at 56.4% · above quota
- Fetcham West · 1 seat · won at 58.2% · above quota
- Fetcham East · 1 seat · won at 58.7% · above quota
- Dorking North · 1 seat · won at 58.7% · above quota
- Ashtead Village · 1 seat · won at 60.0% · above quota
- Ashtead Park · 1 seat · won at 63.2% · above quota
- Westcott · 1 seat · won at 66.4% · above quota
- Ashtead Common · 2 seats · won at 67.7% · above quota
Race results
Leatherhead North · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 33.4% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −16.6 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,581
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bridget Kendrick | Liberal Democrats | 528 | 33.4% | −16.6 pts | Elected |
| 2 | James Keeley | Conservative Party | 453 | 28.7% | — | |
| 3 | Simon Chambers | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 279 | 17.6% | — | |
| 4 | Marc Green | Labour Party | 255 | 16.1% | — | |
| 5 | Vicki Elcoate | Green Party | 66 | 4.2% | — |
Holmwoods · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 44.9% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −5.1 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,660
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wayne Monkman | Liberal Democrats | 745 | 44.9% | −5.1 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Terry Mayne | Conservative Party | 476 | 28.7% | — | |
| 3 | Stephen Morgan | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 221 | 13.3% | — | |
| 4 | Malcolm Ward | Labour Party | 109 | 6.6% | — | |
| 5 | Jeff Zie | Green Party | 109 | 6.6% | — |
Dorking South · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 45.4% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −4.6 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 2,500
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Loretto | Liberal Democrats | 1,136 | 45.4% | −4.6 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Roger Jones | Conservative Party | 820 | 32.8% | — | |
| 3 | Frank Pemberton | Labour Party | 244 | 9.8% | — | |
| 4 | Christopher Crook | Green Party | 181 | 7.2% | — | |
| 5 | Michael Foulston | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 119 | 4.8% | — |
Bookham North · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 46.8% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −3.2 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,927
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Metin Huseyin | Conservative Party | 901 | 46.8% | −3.2 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Amanda Hartwell | Liberal Democrats | 587 | 30.5% | — | |
| 3 | Marjorie Dixon | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 260 | 13.5% | — | |
| 4 | Ann James | Green Party | 179 | 9.3% | — |
Bookham South · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 48.1% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −1.9 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,995
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simon Edge | Conservative Party | 959 | 48.1% | −1.9 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Elizabeth Daly | Liberal Democrats | 706 | 35.4% | — | |
| 3 | Michael Heelas | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 203 | 10.2% | — | |
| 4 | Damian McDevitt | Green Party | 127 | 6.4% | — |
Leatherhead South · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 56.4% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +6.4 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,229
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rosemary Dickson | Conservative Party | 693 | 56.4% | +6.4 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Christopher Lloyd | Liberal Democrats | 296 | 24.1% | — | |
| 3 | Bob Cane | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 136 | 11.1% | — | |
| 4 | Lucy Barford | Green Party | 104 | 8.5% | — |
Fetcham West · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 58.2% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +8.2 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,595
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Kennedy | Liberal Democrats | 928 | 58.2% | +8.2 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Tracy Keeley | Conservative Party | 471 | 29.5% | — | |
| 3 | Tim Bowling | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 104 | 6.5% | — | |
| 4 | Rachael Harvey | Labour Party | 63 | 3.9% | — | |
| 5 | David Scoffield | Green Party | 29 | 1.8% | — |
Fetcham East · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 58.7% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +8.7 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,144
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lynne Brooks | Conservative Party | 671 | 58.7% | +8.7 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Sebastian Bate | Liberal Democrats | 200 | 17.5% | — | |
| 3 | Sarah Chambers | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 192 | 16.8% | — | |
| 4 | Eugene Suggett | Green Party | 81 | 7.1% | — |
Dorking North · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 58.7% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +8.7 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,597
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Elderton | Liberal Democrats | 938 | 58.7% | +8.7 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Lucinda Sharpe | Conservative Party | 314 | 19.7% | — | |
| 3 | Jacquetta Fewster | Green Party | 168 | 10.5% | — | |
| 4 | Peter Horitz | Labour Party | 104 | 6.5% | — | |
| 5 | Apolinario Afonso | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 73 | 4.6% | — |
Ashtead Village · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 60.0% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +10.0 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 2,033
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mary Cooper | Ashtead | 1,220 | 60.0% | +10.0 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Caroline Wood | Conservative Party | 633 | 31.1% | — | |
| 3 | Clive Scott | Labour Party | 113 | 5.6% | — | |
| 4 | Tony Cooper | Green Party | 67 | 3.3% | — |
Ashtead Park · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 63.2% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +13.2 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,348
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Harper | Ashtead | 852 | 63.2% | +13.2 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Linda St John | Conservative Party | 369 | 27.4% | — | |
| 3 | Susan Gilchrist | Labour Party | 84 | 6.2% | — | |
| 4 | Susan McGrath | Green Party | 43 | 3.2% | — |
Westcott · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 66.4% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +16.4 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 863
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Friend | Conservative Party | 573 | 66.4% | +16.4 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Jane Gavey | Liberal Democrats | 158 | 18.3% | — | |
| 3 | Geoff Cox | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 57 | 6.6% | — | |
| 4 | James Poke | Green Party | 40 | 4.6% | — | |
| 5 | Robert Mallon | Labour Party | 35 | 4.1% | — |
Ashtead Common · 2-seat (bloc vote)
Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~2× smaller. 67.7% Proportional quota 33.3% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +34.3 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 2 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,288
This is a 2-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~2×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 2, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 2. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Hawksworth | Ashtead | 919 | 35.7% | 71.4% | +38.0 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Patricia Wiltshire | Ashtead | 871 | 33.8% | 67.7% | +34.3 pts | Elected |
| 3 | Amanda Ross | Conservative Party | 270 | 10.5% | 21.0% | — | |
| 4 | Dorothy Griffin | Conservative Party | 245 | 9.5% | 19.0% | — | |
| 5 | Pat Allen | Labour Party | 108 | 4.2% | 8.4% | — | |
| 6 | Julian Everett | Green Party | 87 | 3.4% | 6.8% | — | |
| 7 | Muriel Passmore | Green Party | 75 | 2.9% | 5.8% | — |