← Three Rivers (all cycles) · 5 May 2016 cohort
Three Rivers 2016
Local elections held 5 May 2016.
How to read this page
Each race below shows the share of valid ballots the marginal elected candidate actually won, and compares it to the proportional quota: the share they'd need to clinch the seat under any proportional voting method (1 seats + 1). For a 1-seat ward the quota is 50%; for 2 seats, 33.3%; for 3 seats, 25%.
Where the actual winning share fell below the quota, we show the signed gap as points below quota (a negative number) — the editorial indictment. Above-quota results clear the bar and pass without comment. The voting method is the subject of every observation here. Named candidates appear as the public election record requires; the cause being audited is the voting method, not the individuals. See the methodology page for derivations.
If votes were counted by party
Across the 13 wards in this cycle, parties received the vote totals below. The proportional column shows what each party would have won if the 15 seats had been shared out in proportion to votes received (how, with caveats). The Δ column is the actual seat count minus the proportional seat count — positive numbers are parties First-Past-the-Post over-represented; negative are parties it under-represented.
| Party | Votes | Vote % | Seats won | % of seats | Proportional seats | Proportional % | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal Democrats | 10,244 | 38.9% | 8 | 53.3% | 6 | 40.0% | +2 |
| Conservative Party | 9,372 | 35.6% | 5 | 33.3% | 6 | 40.0% | -1 |
| Labour Party | 4,426 | 16.8% | 2 | 13.3% | 2 | 13.3% | 0 |
| UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 2,265 | 8.6% | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 6.7% | -1 |
| Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition | 19 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Total | 26,326 | 100.0% | 15 | 100.0% | 15 | 100.0% | 0 |
Vote share vs seats won
The top bar is each party's share of votes cast in this council. Below, one square per seat, coloured by the party that won it — first the actual First-Past-the-Post result, then what a proportional method would have produced from the same vote totals. Divergence between the bar and the actual grid is the indictment of the method.
Council composition: what this election replaced
Two opencouncildata snapshots: the council immediately after the 2016 election (current) and immediately before it (2015). Only ~⅓ of seats were contested in 2016 — most of the bench is unchanged, and the cycle's effect on the overall composition is what shifts.
Wards in this council
Sorted with the largest gap below the quota first. Click any ward to jump to its full result.
- Penn and Mill End · 1 seat · won at 45.9% · −4.1 pts below quota
- Oxhey Hall and Hayling · 1 seat · won at 47.8% · −2.2 pts below quota
- Rickmansworth Town · 1 seat · won at 52.8% · above quota
- Leavesden · 1 seat · won at 54.2% · above quota
- Dickinsons · 1 seat · won at 56.4% · above quota
- Abbots Langley and Bedmond · 1 seat · won at 56.5% · above quota
- Chorleywood South and Maple Cross · 1 seat · won at 59.1% · above quota
- Gade Valley · 1 seat · won at 61.7% · above quota
- Carpenders Park · 2 seats · won at 47.8% · above quota
- South Oxhey · 2 seats · won at 50.3% · above quota
- Chorleywood North and Sarratt · 1 seat · won at 72.8% · above quota
- Durrants · 1 seat · won at 73.2% · above quota
- Moor Park and Eastbury · 1 seat · won at 75.9% · above quota
Race results
Penn and Mill End · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 45.9% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −4.1 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,679
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roger Seabourne | Liberal Democrats | 770 | 45.9% | −4.1 pts | Elected |
| 2 | David Raw | Conservative Party | 527 | 31.4% | — | |
| 3 | Sarah Green | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 214 | 12.7% | — | |
| 4 | James McEwan | Labour Party | 168 | 10.0% | — |
Oxhey Hall and Hayling · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 47.8% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −2.2 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,939
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrew Scarth | Liberal Democrats | 926 | 47.8% | −2.2 pts | Elected |
| 2 | John Kyles | Conservative Party | 496 | 25.6% | — | |
| 3 | Brendan O'Brien | Labour Party | 339 | 17.5% | — | |
| 4 | James Stacey | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 178 | 9.2% | — |
Rickmansworth Town · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 52.8% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +2.8 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,952
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Sansom | Conservative Party | 1,031 | 52.8% | +2.8 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Pat Howell | Liberal Democrats | 489 | 25.1% | — | |
| 3 | Graham Dale | Labour Party | 286 | 14.7% | — | |
| 4 | Francis Johnson | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 146 | 7.5% | — |
Leavesden · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 54.2% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +4.2 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,633
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen Giles-Medhurst | Liberal Democrats | 885 | 54.2% | +4.2 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Hitesh Tailor | Conservative Party | 309 | 18.9% | — | |
| 3 | Joanne Cox | Labour Party | 233 | 14.3% | — | |
| 4 | David Bennett | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 187 | 11.5% | — | |
| 5 | Richard Shattock | Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition | 19 | 1.2% | — |
Dickinsons · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 56.4% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +6.4 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,830
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Peter Getkahn | Liberal Democrats | 1,033 | 56.4% | +6.4 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Jussie Kaur | Conservative Party | 511 | 27.9% | — | |
| 3 | Davis Wynne-Jones | Labour Party | 286 | 15.6% | — |
Abbots Langley and Bedmond · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 56.5% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +6.5 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,834
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matthew Bedford | Liberal Democrats | 1,037 | 56.5% | +6.5 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Leigh Fleming | Conservative Party | 394 | 21.5% | — | |
| 3 | Ian Holmes | Labour Party | 224 | 12.2% | — | |
| 4 | Lee Farrell | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 179 | 9.8% | — |
Chorleywood South and Maple Cross · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 59.1% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +9.1 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 2,401
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ann Shaw | Liberal Democrats | 1,418 | 59.1% | +9.1 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Barbara Dickens | Conservative Party | 687 | 28.6% | — | |
| 3 | Fiona Goble | Labour Party | 171 | 7.1% | — | |
| 4 | Anne Lewis | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 125 | 5.2% | — |
Gade Valley · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 61.7% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +11.7 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,574
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joy Mann | Liberal Democrats | 971 | 61.7% | +11.7 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Dee Ward | Conservative Party | 399 | 25.3% | — | |
| 3 | Bruce Prochnik | Labour Party | 204 | 13.0% | — |
Carpenders Park · 2-seat (bloc vote)
Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~2× smaller. 47.8% Proportional quota 33.3% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +14.5 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 2 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,716
This is a 2-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~2×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 2, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 2. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Coltman | Conservative Party | 868 | 25.3% | 50.6% | +17.2 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Valerie Coltman | Conservative Party | 821 | 23.9% | 47.8% | +14.5 pts | Elected |
| 3 | Pam Hames | Liberal Democrats | 485 | 14.1% | 28.3% | — | |
| 4 | Paul Gordon | Labour Party | 335 | 9.8% | 19.5% | — | |
| 5 | Lee Osborne | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 322 | 9.4% | 18.8% | — | |
| 6 | Christopher Green | Labour Party | 307 | 8.9% | 17.9% | — | |
| 7 | Dennis Rogers | Liberal Democrats | 294 | 8.6% | 17.1% | — |
South Oxhey · 2-seat (bloc vote)
Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~2× smaller. 50.3% Proportional quota 33.3% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +16.9 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 2 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,355
This is a 2-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~2×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 2, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 2. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joan King | Labour Party | 749 | 27.6% | 55.3% | +22.0 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Stephen King | Labour Party | 681 | 25.1% | 50.3% | +16.9 pts | Elected |
| 3 | Yessica Gould | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 354 | 13.1% | 26.1% | — | |
| 4 | Michael Matthewson | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 348 | 12.8% | 25.7% | — | |
| 5 | Shanti Maru | Conservative Party | 240 | 8.9% | 17.7% | — | |
| 6 | Elizabeth Willetts | Conservative Party | 220 | 8.1% | 16.2% | — | |
| 7 | Jill Swainson | Liberal Democrats | 66 | 2.4% | 4.9% | — | |
| 8 | Ben Trevett | Liberal Democrats | 51 | 1.9% | 3.8% | — |
Chorleywood North and Sarratt · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 72.8% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +22.8 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,853
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marilyn Butler | Conservative Party | 1,349 | 72.8% | +22.8 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Ashok Bhardwaj | Liberal Democrats | 239 | 12.9% | — | |
| 3 | Andrew Wells | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 145 | 7.8% | — | |
| 4 | Maureen Sedlacek | Labour Party | 120 | 6.5% | — |
Durrants · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 73.2% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +23.2 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,928
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Lloyd | Liberal Democrats | 1,412 | 73.2% | +23.2 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Brian Sainsbury | Conservative Party | 334 | 17.3% | — | |
| 3 | Sarah Linhart | Labour Party | 182 | 9.4% | — |
Moor Park and Eastbury · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 75.9% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +25.9 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,562
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Debbie Morris | Conservative Party | 1,186 | 75.9% | +25.9 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Jeremy Asquith | Liberal Democrats | 168 | 10.8% | — | |
| 3 | Pamela King | Labour Party | 141 | 9.0% | — | |
| 4 | Yvonne Sterling | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 67 | 4.3% | — |