← Three Rivers (all cycles) · 2 May 2019 cohort
Three Rivers 2019
Local elections held 2 May 2019.
How to read this page
Each race below shows the share of valid ballots the marginal elected candidate actually won, and compares it to the proportional quota: the share they'd need to clinch the seat under any proportional voting method (1 seats + 1). For a 1-seat ward the quota is 50%; for 2 seats, 33.3%; for 3 seats, 25%.
Where the actual winning share fell below the quota, we show the signed gap as points below quota (a negative number) — the editorial indictment. Above-quota results clear the bar and pass without comment. The voting method is the subject of every observation here. Named candidates appear as the public election record requires; the cause being audited is the voting method, not the individuals. See the methodology page for derivations.
If votes were counted by party
Across the 13 wards in this cycle, parties received the vote totals below. The proportional column shows what each party would have won if the 14 seats had been shared out in proportion to votes received (how, with caveats). The Δ column is the actual seat count minus the proportional seat count — positive numbers are parties First-Past-the-Post over-represented; negative are parties it under-represented.
| Party | Votes | Vote % | Seats won | % of seats | Proportional seats | Proportional % | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal Democrats | 10,581 | 45.5% | 8 | 57.1% | 7 | 50.0% | +1 |
| Conservative Party | 6,984 | 30.0% | 5 | 35.7% | 4 | 28.6% | +1 |
| Labour Party | 2,995 | 12.9% | 1 | 7.1% | 2 | 14.3% | -1 |
| Green Party | 2,064 | 8.9% | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 7.1% | -1 |
| UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 446 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Independent | 192 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Total | 23,262 | 100.0% | 14 | 100.0% | 14 | 100.0% | 0 |
Vote share vs seats won
The top bar is each party's share of votes cast in this council. Below, one square per seat, coloured by the party that won it — first the actual First-Past-the-Post result, then what a proportional method would have produced from the same vote totals. Divergence between the bar and the actual grid is the indictment of the method.
Council composition: what this election replaced
Two opencouncildata snapshots: the council immediately after the 2019 election (current) and immediately before it (2018). Only ~⅓ of seats were contested in 2019 — most of the bench is unchanged, and the cycle's effect on the overall composition is what shifts.
Wards in this council
Sorted with the largest gap below the quota first. Click any ward to jump to its full result.
- Penn and Mill End · 1 seat · won at 46.5% · −3.5 pts below quota
- Rickmansworth Town · 1 seat · won at 46.8% · −3.2 pts below quota
- South Oxhey · 1 seat · won at 49.1% · −0.9 pts below quota
- Oxhey Hall and Hayling · 1 seat · won at 49.6% · −0.4 pts below quota
- Chorleywood South and Maple Cross · 1 seat · won at 50.9% · above quota
- Carpenders Park · 2 seats · won at 44.7% · above quota
- Chorleywood North and Sarratt · 1 seat · won at 63.8% · above quota
- Durrants · 1 seat · won at 64.4% · above quota
- Dickinsons · 1 seat · won at 66.2% · above quota
- Abbots Langley and Bedmond · 1 seat · won at 70.4% · above quota
- Gade Valley · 1 seat · won at 72.7% · above quota
- Moor Park and Eastbury · 1 seat · won at 73.1% · above quota
- Leavesden · 1 seat · won at 76.1% · above quota
Race results
Penn and Mill End · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 46.5% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −3.5 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,577
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tony Humphreys | Liberal Democrats | 733 | 46.5% | −3.5 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Di Barber | Conservative Party | 436 | 27.6% | — | |
| 3 | Vesper Hunter | Independent | 159 | 10.1% | — | |
| 4 | Emma Brading | Green Party | 135 | 8.6% | — | |
| 5 | Martin Waldron | Labour Party | 114 | 7.2% | — |
Rickmansworth Town · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 46.8% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −3.2 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,965
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Raw | Conservative Party | 919 | 46.8% | −3.2 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Peter Loader | Green Party | 533 | 27.1% | — | |
| 3 | Pat Howell | Liberal Democrats | 365 | 18.6% | — | |
| 4 | Alex Charlton | Labour Party | 148 | 7.5% | — |
South Oxhey · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 49.1% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −0.9 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,293
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephen Cox | Labour Party | 635 | 49.1% | −0.9 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Lee Osborne | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 250 | 19.3% | — | |
| 3 | Pandora Melly | Conservative Party | 161 | 12.5% | — | |
| 4 | Mary Connolly | Liberal Democrats | 160 | 12.4% | — | |
| 5 | Mary Chabrel | Green Party | 54 | 4.2% | — | |
| 6 | Yessica Gould | Independent | 33 | 2.6% | — |
Oxhey Hall and Hayling · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 49.6% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −0.4 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,801
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keith Martin | Liberal Democrats | 893 | 49.6% | −0.4 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Chris Green | Labour Party | 372 | 20.7% | — | |
| 3 | Andy Milner | Conservative Party | 340 | 18.9% | — | |
| 4 | Mick Matthewson | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 196 | 10.9% | — |
Chorleywood South and Maple Cross · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 50.9% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +0.9 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 2,251
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Raj Khiroya | Liberal Democrats | 1,146 | 50.9% | +0.9 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Angela Killick | Conservative Party | 832 | 37.0% | — | |
| 3 | Roger Stafford | Green Party | 205 | 9.1% | — | |
| 4 | Anthony Cable | Labour Party | 68 | 3.0% | — |
Carpenders Park · 2-seat (bloc vote)
Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~2× smaller. 44.7% Proportional quota 33.3% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +11.4 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 2 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,513
This is a 2-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~2×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 2, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 2. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shanti Maru | Conservative Party | 692 | 22.9% | 45.8% | +12.4 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Michael Revan | Conservative Party | 676 | 22.3% | 44.7% | +11.4 pts | Elected |
| 3 | Pam Hames | Liberal Democrats | 537 | 17.8% | 35.5% | — | |
| 4 | Geoff Dunne | Liberal Democrats | 502 | 16.6% | 33.2% | — | |
| 5 | Mandy Shumake | Labour Party | 310 | 10.2% | 20.5% | — | |
| 6 | William Waite | Labour Party | 308 | 10.2% | 20.4% | — |
Chorleywood North and Sarratt · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 63.8% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +13.8 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,878
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alison Wall | Conservative Party | 1,198 | 63.8% | +13.8 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Ben Trevett | Liberal Democrats | 447 | 23.8% | — | |
| 3 | Simon Hughes | Green Party | 169 | 9.0% | — | |
| 4 | Margaret Gallagher | Labour Party | 64 | 3.4% | — |
Durrants · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 64.4% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +14.4 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,692
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stephanie Singer | Liberal Democrats | 1,089 | 64.4% | +14.4 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Jane Goldman | Conservative Party | 291 | 17.2% | — | |
| 3 | John Grillo | Labour Party | 158 | 9.3% | — | |
| 4 | Nemone Caldwell | Green Party | 154 | 9.1% | — |
Dickinsons · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 66.2% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +16.2 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,916
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dominic Sokalski | Liberal Democrats | 1,268 | 66.2% | +16.2 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Rupert Barnes | Conservative Party | 392 | 20.5% | — | |
| 3 | Jeni Swift Gillett | Labour Party | 137 | 7.2% | — | |
| 4 | Simon Fourmy | Green Party | 119 | 6.2% | — |
Abbots Langley and Bedmond · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 70.4% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +20.4 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,613
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Major | Liberal Democrats | 1,136 | 70.4% | +20.4 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Bobbie Curran | Green Party | 292 | 18.1% | — | |
| 3 | Joanne Cox | Labour Party | 185 | 11.5% | — |
Gade Valley · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 72.7% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +22.7 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,353
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Michaels | Liberal Democrats | 984 | 72.7% | +22.7 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Bruce Prochnik | Labour Party | 201 | 14.9% | — | |
| 3 | Andrew Brading | Green Party | 168 | 12.4% | — |
Moor Park and Eastbury · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 73.1% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +23.1 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,433
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reena Ranger | Conservative Party | 1,047 | 73.1% | +23.1 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Jeremy Asquith | Liberal Democrats | 206 | 14.4% | — | |
| 3 | Paul Dawson | Green Party | 91 | 6.4% | — | |
| 4 | Robert Crowley | Labour Party | 89 | 6.2% | — |
Leavesden · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 76.1% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +26.1 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,465
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kate Turner | Liberal Democrats | 1,115 | 76.1% | +26.1 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Marie-Louise Nolan | Labour Party | 206 | 14.1% | — | |
| 3 | Charles Robinson | Green Party | 144 | 9.8% | — |