← Thurrock (all cycles) · 2 May 2019 cohort
Thurrock 2019
Local elections held 2 May 2019.
How to read this page
Each race below shows the share of valid ballots the marginal elected candidate actually won, and compares it to the proportional quota: the share they'd need to clinch the seat under any proportional voting method (1 seats + 1). For a 1-seat ward the quota is 50%; for 2 seats, 33.3%; for 3 seats, 25%.
Where the actual winning share fell below the quota, we show the signed gap as points below quota (a negative number) — the editorial indictment. Above-quota results clear the bar and pass without comment. The voting method is the subject of every observation here. Named candidates appear as the public election record requires; the cause being audited is the voting method, not the individuals. See the methodology page for derivations.
If votes were counted by party
Across the 16 wards in this cycle, parties received the vote totals below. The proportional column shows what each party would have won if the 17 seats had been shared out in proportion to votes received (how, with caveats). The Δ column is the actual seat count minus the proportional seat count — positive numbers are parties First-Past-the-Post over-represented; negative are parties it under-represented.
| Party | Votes | Vote % | Seats won | % of seats | Proportional seats | Proportional % | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative Party | 8,922 | 31.7% | 6 | 35.3% | 6 | 35.3% | 0 |
| Labour Party | 8,895 | 31.6% | 5 | 29.4% | 6 | 35.3% | -1 |
| Thurrock | 8,163 | 29.0% | 5 | 29.4% | 5 | 29.4% | 0 |
| Independent | 1,126 | 4.0% | 1 | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0% | +1 |
| Liberal Democrats | 399 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 344 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| BUSP | 148 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Green Party | 145 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Total | 28,142 | 100.0% | 17 | 100.0% | 17 | 100.0% | 0 |
Vote share vs seats won
The top bar is each party's share of votes cast in this council. Below, one square per seat, coloured by the party that won it — first the actual First-Past-the-Post result, then what a proportional method would have produced from the same vote totals. Divergence between the bar and the actual grid is the indictment of the method.
Council composition: what this election replaced
Two opencouncildata snapshots: the council immediately after the 2019 election (current) and immediately before it (2018). Only ~⅓ of seats were contested in 2019 — most of the bench is unchanged, and the cycle's effect on the overall composition is what shifts.
Wards in this council
Sorted with the largest gap below the quota first. Click any ward to jump to its full result.
- Stifford Clays · 1 seat · won at 38.4% · −11.6 pts below quota
- Belhus · 1 seat · won at 38.7% · −11.3 pts below quota
- Little Thurrock Rectory · 1 seat · won at 40.4% · −9.6 pts below quota
- Ockendon · 1 seat · won at 41.1% · −8.9 pts below quota
- Stanford East and Corringham Town · 1 seat · won at 42.4% · −7.6 pts below quota
- The Homesteads · 1 seat · won at 43.0% · −7.0 pts below quota
- Aveley and Uplands · 1 seat · won at 43.8% · −6.2 pts below quota
- Grays Riverside · 1 seat · won at 46.6% · −3.4 pts below quota
- Chafford and North Stifford · 1 seat · won at 47.5% · −2.5 pts below quota
- Grays Thurrock · 1 seat · won at 49.1% · −0.9 pts below quota
- West Thurrock and South Stifford · 1 seat · won at 54.8% · above quota
- Tilbury Riverside and Thurrock Park · 1 seat · won at 57.2% · above quota
- Corringham and Fobbing · 1 seat · won at 59.8% · above quota
- Stanford-le-Hope West · 1 seat · won at 61.1% · above quota
- East Tilbury · 1 seat · won at 62.6% · above quota
- Chadwell St Mary · 2 seats · won at 47.5% · above quota
Race results
Stifford Clays · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 38.4% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −11.6 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,587
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jennifer Smith | Thurrock | 610 | 38.4% | −11.6 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Jennifer Craft | Labour Party | 492 | 31.0% | — | |
| 3 | Graham Snell | Conservative Party | 485 | 30.6% | — |
Belhus · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 38.7% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −11.3 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,733
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stanley Baker | Thurrock | 670 | 38.7% | −11.3 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Lee Watson | Labour Party | 660 | 38.1% | — | |
| 3 | Romanus Nwakuna | Conservative Party | 255 | 14.7% | — | |
| 4 | David Bradshaw | BUSP | 148 | 8.5% | — |
Little Thurrock Rectory · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 40.4% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −9.6 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,449
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thomas Kelly | Conservative Party | 586 | 40.4% | −9.6 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Russell Cherry | Thurrock | 426 | 29.4% | — | |
| 3 | Leslie Strange | Labour Party | 289 | 19.9% | — | |
| 4 | Neil Rivett | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 148 | 10.2% | — |
Ockendon · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 41.1% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −8.9 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 2,390
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrew Jefferies | Conservative Party | 982 | 41.1% | −8.9 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Ruth Clapham | Labour Party | 745 | 31.2% | — | |
| 3 | Janet Baker | Thurrock | 663 | 27.7% | — |
Stanford East and Corringham Town · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 42.4% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −7.6 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,915
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shane Ralph | Thurrock | 812 | 42.4% | −7.6 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Roy Jones | Conservative Party | 709 | 37.0% | — | |
| 3 | Carl Morris | Labour Party | 394 | 20.6% | — |
The Homesteads · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 43.0% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −7.0 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 2,234
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gary Byrne | Thurrock | 960 | 43.0% | −7.0 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Paul Arnold | Conservative Party | 946 | 42.3% | — | |
| 3 | Daniel Norton | Labour Party | 328 | 14.7% | — |
Aveley and Uplands · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 43.8% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −6.2 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,506
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colin Churchman | Conservative Party | 660 | 43.8% | −6.2 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Peter Smith | Thurrock | 513 | 34.1% | — | |
| 3 | Charles Curtis | Labour Party | 333 | 22.1% | — |
Grays Riverside · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 46.6% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −3.4 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,716
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jane Pothecary | Labour Party | 800 | 46.6% | −3.4 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Kevin McNamara | Liberal Democrats | 399 | 23.3% | — | |
| 3 | Gurjit Thandi | Conservative Party | 299 | 17.4% | — | |
| 4 | Kanlayani Sisasima | Thurrock | 218 | 12.7% | — |
Chafford and North Stifford · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 47.5% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −2.5 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,313
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mark Coxshall | Conservative Party | 624 | 47.5% | −2.5 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Rafal Zak | Labour Party | 354 | 27.0% | — | |
| 3 | Graham Hamilton | Thurrock | 190 | 14.5% | — | |
| 4 | Julian Puttergill | Green Party | 145 | 11.0% | — |
Grays Thurrock · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 49.1% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −0.9 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,883
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Catherine Kent | Labour Party | 925 | 49.1% | −0.9 pts | Elected |
| 2 | James Thandi | Conservative Party | 513 | 27.2% | — | |
| 3 | Shelby Mayes | Thurrock | 445 | 23.6% | — |
West Thurrock and South Stifford · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 54.8% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +4.8 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,372
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Victoria Holloway | Labour Party | 752 | 54.8% | +4.8 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Jimmy Mower | Thurrock | 358 | 26.1% | — | |
| 3 | Joseph Kaley | Conservative Party | 262 | 19.1% | — |
Tilbury Riverside and Thurrock Park · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 57.2% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +7.2 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,244
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Allen Mayes | Thurrock | 712 | 57.2% | +7.2 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Clare Baldwin | Labour Party | 429 | 34.5% | — | |
| 3 | Daryl Palmer | Conservative Party | 103 | 8.3% | — |
Corringham and Fobbing · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 59.8% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +9.8 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,419
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deborah Huelin | Conservative Party | 848 | 59.8% | +9.8 pts | Elected |
| 2 | John Cecil | Labour Party | 316 | 22.3% | — | |
| 3 | Olugbenga Olajugbagbe | Thurrock | 255 | 18.0% | — |
Stanford-le-Hope West · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 61.1% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +11.1 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,508
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shane Hebb | Conservative Party | 921 | 61.1% | +11.1 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Michael Fawcett | Thurrock | 313 | 20.8% | — | |
| 3 | Clifford Holloway | Labour Party | 274 | 18.2% | — |
East Tilbury · single-seat
Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 62.6% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +12.6 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,573
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fraser Massey | Independent | 984 | 62.6% | +12.6 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Michael Keal | UK Independence Party (UKIP) | 196 | 12.5% | — | |
| 3 | Glenn Stanley | Conservative Party | 161 | 10.2% | — | |
| 4 | Jacqueline Dobson | Labour Party | 158 | 10.0% | — | |
| 5 | Oliver Smith | Thurrock | 74 | 4.7% | — |
Chadwell St Mary · 2-seat (bloc vote)
Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~2× smaller. 47.5% Proportional quota 33.3% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +14.1 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 2 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,650
This is a 2-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~2×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 2, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →
| Rank | Candidate | Party | Votes | Share of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes. | Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 2. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota. | Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it. | Elected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Chukwu | Labour Party | 863 | 26.2% | 52.3% | +19.0 pts | Elected |
| 2 | Sara Muldowney | Labour Party | 783 | 23.7% | 47.5% | +14.1 pts | Elected |
| 3 | Steve Minett | Thurrock | 488 | 14.8% | 29.6% | — | |
| 4 | Stacey Clark | Thurrock | 456 | 13.8% | 27.6% | — | |
| 5 | Georgette Polley | Conservative Party | 301 | 9.1% | 18.2% | — | |
| 6 | Paul Polley | Conservative Party | 267 | 8.1% | 16.2% | — | |
| 7 | Stephen Andrews | Independent | 142 | 4.3% | 8.6% | — |