← Wyre Forest (all cycles) · 2 May 2019 cohort

Wyre Forest 2019

Local elections held 2 May 2019.

12 ward races
33 seats
1 elected below the proportional quota
3.0% of seats below quota

How to read this page

Each race below shows the share of valid ballots the marginal elected candidate actually won, and compares it to the proportional quota: the share they'd need to clinch the seat under any proportional voting method (1 seats + 1). For a 1-seat ward the quota is 50%; for 2 seats, 33.3%; for 3 seats, 25%.

Where the actual winning share fell below the quota, we show the signed gap as points below quota (a negative number) — the editorial indictment. Above-quota results clear the bar and pass without comment. The voting method is the subject of every observation here. Named candidates appear as the public election record requires; the cause being audited is the voting method, not the individuals. See the methodology page for derivations.

If votes were counted by party

Across the 12 wards in this cycle, parties received the vote totals below. The proportional column shows what each party would have won if the 33 seats had been shared out in proportion to votes received (how, with caveats). The Δ column is the actual seat count minus the proportional seat count — positive numbers are parties First-Past-the-Post over-represented; negative are parties it under-represented.

PartyVotesVote %Seats won% of seatsProportional seatsProportional %Δ
Conservative Party17,82731.6%1442.4%1133.3%+3
ICHC9,76317.3%824.2%618.2%+2
Labour Party9,05316.1%26.1%618.2%-4
Independent5,98310.6%515.2%39.1%+2
Liberal Democrats5,91910.5%39.1%39.1%0
Green Party4,3257.7%13.0%26.1%-1
UK Independence Party (UKIP)3,4916.2%00.0%26.1%-2
Total56,361100.0%33100.0%33100.0%0

Vote share vs seats won

The top bar is each party's share of votes cast in this council. Below, one square per seat, coloured by the party that won it — first the actual First-Past-the-Post result, then what a proportional method would have produced from the same vote totals. Divergence between the bar and the actual grid is the indictment of the method.

Vote share
Actual seats
Proportional seats

Council composition: what this election replaced

The 2019 cycle was an all-out election — every seat was contested. The two opencouncildata snapshots below show the council immediately after the 2019 election (current) and on the eve of it (2018), so you can see what the result replaced.

Current (2019)
Previous (2018)

Wards in this council

Sorted with the largest gap below the quota first. Click any ward to jump to its full result.

Race results

Lickhill · single-seat

Marginal winner Winning candidate's share of valid ballots. 37.2% Proportional quota 50.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. −12.8 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 1 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 707

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Dixon SheppardICHC26337.2%−12.8 ptsElected
2David LittleConservative Party24134.1%
3Carol WarrenLabour Party10915.4%
4Chris PrattLiberal Democrats638.9%
5Nick AtkinsonGreen Party314.4%

EC ward code E05010509 · Back to ward index

Broadwaters · 3-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~3× smaller. 33.4% Proportional quota 25.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +8.4 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 3 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,439

This is a 3-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~3×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 3, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 3. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Mary RaynerIndependent72116.7%50.1%+25.1 ptsElected
2Peter YoungICHC68215.8%47.4%+22.4 ptsElected
3Sarah RookLabour Party48111.1%33.4%+8.4 ptsElected
4Gareth WebsterLabour Party46110.7%32.0%
5Abdur RazzakLiberal Democrats3758.7%26.1%
6Bill HopkinsUK Independence Party (UKIP)3708.6%25.7%
7Steve WalkerConservative Party3658.5%25.4%
8Anita OstrowskiGreen Party3327.7%23.1%
9Clare CassidyLiberal Democrats3047.0%21.1%
10Simon FordLiberal Democrats2275.3%15.8%

EC ward code E05010506 · Back to ward index

Franche and Habberley North · 3-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~3× smaller. 33.9% Proportional quota 25.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +8.9 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 3 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,919

This is a 3-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~3×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 3, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 3. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Susie GriffithsICHC95616.6%49.8%+24.8 ptsElected
2Graham BallingerICHC89015.5%46.4%+21.4 ptsElected
3Anna l'HuillierICHC65111.3%33.9%+8.9 ptsElected
4Mike CheesemanConservative Party62810.9%32.7%
5Nigel KnowlesLabour Party62810.9%32.7%
6David RossConservative Party5369.3%27.9%
7Mary McDonnellLabour Party5028.7%26.2%
8Tony WhitmoreUK Independence Party (UKIP)3385.9%17.6%
9Brett CaulfieldGreen Party3185.5%16.6%
10Oliver WalkerLiberal Democrats3115.4%16.2%

EC ward code E05010508 · Back to ward index

Areley Kings and Riverside · 3-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~3× smaller. 35.6% Proportional quota 25.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +10.6 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 3 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,707

This is a 3-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~3×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 3, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 3. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Claire BarnettICHC72414.1%42.4%+17.4 ptsElected
2John ThomasICHC72414.1%42.4%+17.4 ptsElected
3Ken HendersonConservative Party60811.9%35.6%+10.6 ptsElected
4Lin HendersonConservative Party56411.0%33.0%
5Gary TalbotConservative Party5079.9%29.7%
6Vi HiggsLabour Party4739.2%27.7%
7Cliff BrewerLabour Party3987.8%23.3%
8Rob LloydLabour Party3957.7%23.1%
9Nick JollyUK Independence Party (UKIP)3286.4%19.2%
10Luke ClasperGreen Party3005.9%17.6%
11Anita BeavisLiberal Democrats991.9%5.8%

EC ward code E05010503 · Back to ward index

Wribbenhall and Arley · 2-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~2× smaller. 44.5% Proportional quota 33.3% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +11.2 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 2 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,417

This is a 2-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~2×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 2, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 2 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 2. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Paul HarrisonConservative Party64822.9%45.7%+12.4 ptsElected
2John ByngConservative Party63122.3%44.5%+11.2 ptsElected
3Liz DaviesICHC56119.8%39.6%
4Megan WilliamsGreen Party39714.0%28.0%
5Dan CramptonLabour Party39213.8%27.7%
6Christopher WoodUK Independence Party (UKIP)2057.2%14.5%

EC ward code E05010512 · Back to ward index

Wyre Forest Rural · 3-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~3× smaller. 38.2% Proportional quota 25.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +13.2 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 3 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 2,508

This is a 3-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~3×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 3, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 3. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Ian HardimanConservative Party1,13615.1%45.3%+20.3 ptsElected
2Marcus HartConservative Party1,11514.8%44.5%+19.5 ptsElected
3Lisa JonesConservative Party95812.7%38.2%+13.2 ptsElected
4Adrian CarlossICHC88111.7%35.1%
5Vince SmithICHC77710.3%31.0%
6Harry GroveICHC6188.2%24.6%
7Chris NichollsLabour Party5206.9%20.7%
8David JonesLabour Party4846.4%19.3%
9Kate SpohrerGreen Party4235.6%16.9%
10Steven HarringtonUK Independence Party (UKIP)3164.2%12.6%
11Barry McFarlandLabour Party2953.9%11.8%

EC ward code E05010513 · Back to ward index

Foley Park and Hoobrook · 3-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~3× smaller. 39.3% Proportional quota 25.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +14.3 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 3 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,648

This is a 3-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~3×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 3, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 3. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Nathan DesmondConservative Party78815.9%47.8%+22.8 ptsElected
2Sally ChambersConservative Party72814.7%44.2%+19.2 ptsElected
3Nicky GaleConservative Party64713.1%39.3%+14.3 ptsElected
4Sue MeekingsICHC62512.6%37.9%
5Dave FinchGreen Party4048.2%24.5%
6Craig LeonardUK Independence Party (UKIP)3757.6%22.8%
7John BeckinghamLabour Party3286.6%19.9%
8Gerald CrumptonLabour Party2996.0%18.1%
9Adrian BeavisLiberal Democrats2885.8%17.5%
10Leia BeavisLiberal Democrats2354.8%14.3%
11Heidi WorthLiberal Democrats2264.6%13.7%

EC ward code E05010507 · Back to ward index

Mitton · 3-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~3× smaller. 41.6% Proportional quota 25.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +16.6 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 3 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,554

This is a 3-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~3×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 3, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 3. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Nicky MartinICHC1,01321.7%65.2%+40.2 ptsElected
2Chris RogersConservative Party66214.2%42.6%+17.6 ptsElected
3Berenice DawesConservative Party64713.9%41.6%+16.6 ptsElected
4Howard WilliamsConservative Party51411.0%33.1%
5Phil OliverGreen Party4269.1%27.4%
6Jackie GriffithsLabour Party4118.8%26.4%
7Jill HawesLabour Party3998.6%25.7%
8Daniel ReesLabour Party3657.8%23.5%
9Rachel AkathiotisLiberal Democrats2254.8%14.5%

EC ward code E05010510 · Back to ward index

Bewdley and Rock · 3-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~3× smaller. 46.3% Proportional quota 25.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +21.3 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 3 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,870

This is a 3-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~3×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 3, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 3. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Anna ColemanConservative Party96917.3%51.8%+26.8 ptsElected
2Calne Edginton-WhiteIndependent94716.9%50.6%+25.6 ptsElected
3Roger ColemanConservative Party86615.4%46.3%+21.3 ptsElected
4Becky ValeConservative Party85215.2%45.6%
5Rod StanczyszynLabour Party82114.6%43.9%
6John DavisGreen Party72713.0%38.9%
7Paul RogersUK Independence Party (UKIP)4287.6%22.9%

EC ward code E05010504 · Back to ward index

Blakebrook and Habberley South · 3-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~3× smaller. 46.5% Proportional quota 25.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +21.5 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 3 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,366

This is a 3-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~3×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 3, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 3. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Tracey OnslowConservative Party75218.3%55.0%+30.0 ptsElected
2Vicky CaulfieldGreen Party64515.7%47.2%+22.2 ptsElected
3Leigh WhitehouseLabour Party63615.5%46.5%+21.5 ptsElected
4Juliet SmithConservative Party59914.6%43.8%
5John HartConservative Party57714.1%42.2%
6David HollyoakLiberal Democrats49712.1%36.4%
7George ConnollyUK Independence Party (UKIP)3939.6%28.8%

EC ward code E05010505 · Back to ward index

Offmore and Comberton · 3-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~3× smaller. 58.4% Proportional quota 25.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +33.4 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 3 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 1,586

This is a 3-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~3×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 3, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 3. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Frances OborskiLiberal Democrats1,18324.9%74.6%+49.6 ptsElected
2Shazu MiahLiberal Democrats96020.2%60.5%+35.5 ptsElected
3Alan TottyLiberal Democrats92619.5%58.4%+33.4 ptsElected
4Dave FieldUK Independence Party (UKIP)48210.1%30.4%
5Kevin GaleConservative Party4299.0%27.0%
6Nick SavageLabour Party3948.3%24.8%
7Matthew VinerConservative Party3848.1%24.2%

EC ward code E05010511 · Back to ward index

Aggborough and Spennells · 3-seat (bloc vote)

Marginal winner Voter-share estimate of the lowest-vote elected candidate. Comparable to the proportional quota. The raw vote share would be ~3× smaller. 63.5% Proportional quota 25.0% Below quota Marginal winner's share minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = below; positive = above. +38.5 pts Valid ballots (est.) Estimated voters: total votes ÷ 3 seats. Source data does not publish a ballot count for this cycle. 2,010

This is a 3-seat ward under bloc vote — each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so summing candidate votes overcounts voters by ~3×. We show share of votes (matches the council's published figure) and share of voters (est.) (raw share × 3, the figure comparable to the proportional quota). Why two columns →

RankCandidatePartyVotesShare of votes Candidate votes ÷ total votes cast in this ward. Matches the share the council publishes.Share of voters (est.) Estimated share of voters who supported this candidate, comparable across single- and multi-seat wards. Each voter could cast up to 3 votes, so we approximate ballots as total votes ÷ 3. This is the figure compared against the proportional quota.Below quota Each elected candidate's share of valid ballots minus the proportional quota for this race. Negative = won the seat below the quota; positive = cleared it.Elected
1Helen DykeIndependent1,58326.3%78.8%+53.8 ptsElected
2Peter DykeIndependent1,45524.1%72.4%+47.4 ptsElected
3John AstonIndependent1,27721.2%63.5%+38.5 ptsElected
4Tony MuirConservative Party4767.9%23.7%
5Keith RobertsonICHC3986.6%19.8%
6Maxine WatkinsGreen Party3225.3%16.0%
7George PriceLabour Party2624.3%13.0%
8Warren RogersUK Independence Party (UKIP)2564.2%12.7%

EC ward code E05010502 · Back to ward index